Trump: Talks will take place this weekend, claiming that “an agreement can be reached within one or two days”; demands that Iran indefinitely suspend its nuclear program, hand over all enriched uranium, and not make any payments; denies the unfreezing of $20 billion; maintains a maritime blockade until the agreement is 100% completed.

Iran: Refuses to ship enriched uranium abroad and insists on domestic processing; demands compensation; temporarily opens the Strait of Hormuz (civilian, designated routes, requires permits), and prohibits military vessels from entering; warns that if the U.S. continues the blockade, the Strait will be closed again.
Core disagreements: The handling of enriched uranium, the duration of the nuclear program, the unfreezing of assets, and the proxy issue have yet to be resolved.
- Market reaction: Oil prices plunged on April 17. WTI closed at $83.85 (-11.45%), and Brent at $90.38 (-9.07%); risk premiums cleared rapidly.
Oil price trend forecast (April 18)
Short term (1-2 weeks): High volatility, bearish bias
Baseline scenario (probability 60%): Talks drag on while negotiations continue, the temporary ceasefire remains in effect, limited navigation through the strait, and risk premiums continue to fall.
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