I admit I used to be quite paranoid: I only look at on-chain data. Tagging addresses, doing clustering, analyzing fund flows, it felt like I had a cheat code for x-ray vision… But after a while, I realized that the chain also plays tricks: multi-signature splits, routers/aggregators—once they pass through, the profile immediately turns into “suspected certain smart money,” which, frankly, is just you labeling it with a name you want to see.

Recently, before and after the upgrade of that mainstream public chain, everyone in the group was guessing whether the ecosystem would migrate. I also checked out cross-chain bridges and several major liquidity flows, and the more I looked, the more uneasy I felt: some are just repositioning, some are preparing for CEX or market-making, trying to force it into a “migration” narrative feels like divination. Now I take a two-pronged approach: on-chain evidence as proof, emotions as noise filters… Anyway, just don’t take tags as the truth.