Recently, I've seen people interpret large on-chain transfers and exchange hot and cold wallet movements as "smart money," chasing after these signals.

I've looked at it for so long that my eyes are starting to hurt... Honestly, my expectations for on-chain privacy are becoming more modest:
What you do on the chain is likely to be pieced together, only the cost and who is watching matter.
The boundary of compliance is also quite realistic; when it really matters, whether platforms/nodes/access points cooperate is more important than whether your address changes.
Regular users shouldn't expect "complete anonymity," but more like "don't expose yourself too easily": be a bit more decentralized, avoid fixed patterns, and don't follow the same path for everything.
Anyway, I’m gradually working on structured risk contingency plans, not chasing hot takes for instant interpretation, to avoid tightening my stomach and then starting to make reckless moves.