These days I’ve seen a bunch of interpretations that link ETF capital flows and U.S. stock market risk appetite to the rise and fall of the crypto market, as if it’s all fate… I’d rather remind myself: many outcomes are just the result of probability stacking.

The curve of the AMM looks quite elegant, but market making is really not a get-rich-while-you-lie job. You put your coins in, and once the price drifts, your position is “automatically swapped,” earning less when prices go up and taking more on the weaker side when prices fall. Basically, impermanent loss is slowly eating away at you. Can the fees cover it? Looking at volatility, trading volume, and the pool you choose—all are probability issues, not “just leave it alone.” I’m being very cautious now; I’d rather take fewer risks than rely on luck to explain the results. That’s how I’ll proceed for now.