Been seeing a lot of chatter about whether we've finally hit bottom in this market, and Tom Lee just came out with a pretty bold take on it. He's basically saying the stock market has bottomed and we're heading back to all-time highs from here.

What caught my attention is his reasoning. He pointed out that last week was interesting because even as the geopolitical situation was heating up and oil prices were climbing, stocks actually held their ground. That resilience, he argues, is a sign we've found the floor. With some de-escalation signals coming through now, he thinks we could see stocks rally back toward those highs.

Tom Lee is specifically calling for a potential move to around 7300 on the S&P 500 this year. That's a pretty concrete target. He also made an interesting observation about how the market has already gone through rolling bear markets - first hitting energy and financials last year, then the Mag-7 and software names more recently. His point is that roughly 70% of the S&P 500 has already experienced its own bear market cycle, which means we might not see as much damage in a summer pullback as people typically fear.

There's also the seasonality angle to consider. Historically, April has been strong for stocks - the MSCI World Index has posted positive returns about 75% of the time in April over the past 25 years, averaging a 2% monthly gain. That's the best month of the calendar, and a lot of that comes from US stocks making up around 70% of that index. Even the S&P 500 has a solid track record in April, averaging 1.3% gains since 1928, which makes it the second-best month after July.

Tom Lee's broader thesis seems to be that US resilience in this period is actually a positive, and that could drive more capital into US equities. Whether you buy into all of it or not, it's interesting to see someone with his market experience making such a clear call on the bottom being in. The next few weeks should tell us something about whether that's actually the case.