I just saw that gasoline prices in the United States are hitting record highs for this time of year, and honestly, that's a piece of data we shouldn't ignore. The energy conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to push costs onto consumers in a pretty aggressive way.

The numbers are quite telling: the national average price of gasoline reached $4.12 per gallon this Monday, even surpassing what we saw during the Russia-Ukraine war peak in 2022 when it hit $4.07. Diesel is even more affected, hovering around $5.65 per gallon, nearly 60 cents above the previous record for the same period. Since military attacks began just over a month ago, the price has risen more than $1.10 per gallon.

What's interesting is that although there is some optimism in the markets about possible ceasefire negotiations, retail prices have barely moved. The U.S. Energy Secretary warned that this could remain the case for the coming weeks, even months. Official projections suggest that if the conflict stabilizes in April, we’ll see gasoline at $4.16 in the second quarter, gradually decreasing to $3.55 in the fourth quarter. But here’s the worrying part: even with that decrease, we’ll still be paying more than in previous years.

The real impact goes far beyond the gasoline pump. Diesel drives the entire economy: freight transportation, agriculture, manufacturing. When diesel costs go up, everything goes up. Food, logistics, services. It’s a domino effect that’s already showing up in inflation numbers. And now, it also includes airline ticket prices, putting pressure on the upcoming summer travel season.

Analysts warn that if this situation persists, consumers’ disposable income will tighten even further. And that’s exactly what the economy doesn’t need right now. An additional obstacle to the recovery we’re all hoping for.