I just saw a pretty interesting analysis of Darkfost on CryptoQuant about how conflicts with Estados Unidos could end up complicating the entire inflation landscape. The thing is, inflation in Estados Unidos has a particular structure right now.

Look, in March we saw the biggest month-over-month jump in the IPC since 2022, but here comes the curious part: core IPC practically didn’t move. That means inflationary pressure hasn’t yet spread throughout the entire economy. For now, it seems more like a one-off phenomenon, probably tied to geopolitical tensions.

What we need to watch is how this evolves with the upcoming PCE data. As long as this structure stays the same, inflation isn’t really entrenched in the U.S. economic system. But here’s the risk: if the conflicts with Estados Unidos and Irán drag on, everything could shift scenarios.

If that happens, inflation could gradually turn into a real systemic problem. And when that happens, it would affect economic growth in a more serious way. At that point, the Fed would have very few options: it would probably only be able to respond by raising interest rates even more.

For those of us in crypto, this is relevant because any move in rates directly impacts the markets. So it’s worth keeping an eye on how these geopolitical conflicts play out and how the inflation data evolves over the coming months.