I've been checking the energy price information in the United States, and a quite serious situation is becoming apparent. Gasoline prices have reached a historic high.

According to data from the American Automobile Association, the national average gasoline price this Monday was $4.12 per gallon. It has surpassed the $4.07 during the Ukraine conflict in 2022. What's even more noticeable is diesel, which has jumped to $5.65. This is over 60 cents higher than the level at the same time in 2022.

The background is that since the end of February, the US and Israel have been taking military action against Iran, which is triggering an energy shock. The gasoline price alone has increased by more than $1.10 per gallon.

Recently, there was a temporary dip due to expectations of a ceasefire negotiation between the US and Iran, but overall, prices remain high. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright recently commented on Fox News that "high levels may continue for the next few weeks."

According to the Energy Information Administration's forecast, even if the conflict ends in April, the national average gasoline price in the second quarter is expected to reach around $4.16. After that, it will gradually decline, reaching about $3.55 in the fourth quarter. However, this means consumers will continue to pay higher fuel costs for a while.

What is more serious is the chain reaction caused by rising diesel prices. Since diesel is a key fuel for transportation, agriculture, and industry, higher diesel costs directly impact the prices of food, logistics, and various final consumer goods. This impact is already reflected in inflation data. The rise in aviation fuel costs is also affecting airline ticket prices, adding more burden during the summer travel season.

Analysts point out that if energy prices continue at this level, consumers' disposable income will be squeezed, which could hinder the overall economic recovery. I think this is a situation that requires close attention.