I just reviewed the latest IMF report on tokenization, and there are some points that really deserve attention. The organization acknowledges that this technology can eliminate financial frictions and improve transparency, but here’s the interesting part: the benefits of financial stability remain uncertain.

What catches my attention the most is the analysis of speed. Atomic settlement sounds good in theory, but when everything is automated, stress events in tokenized markets can develop much faster than in traditional systems. Basically, there is less time for humans to intervene when things get tense.

For emerging markets, the outlook is complex. On one hand, tokenization offers real opportunities to accelerate cross-border payments and promote financial inclusion. But here’s the risk that concerns the IMF: increased volatility in capital flows, rapid monetary substitution, and most critically, weakening the sovereignty of local currencies. This is especially relevant when considering how emerging market ETFs and other instruments could interact with these tokenized markets.

Another important aspect the report highlights is legal fragmentation. If there is no clarity on property records and settlement purposes, tokenized markets could become marginalized or fragmented.

Regarding numbers, the value of real-world assets tokenized on blockchain already exceeds $27.6 billion, excluding stablecoins. Projections vary quite a bit: Boston Consulting Group estimated in 2022 that it would reach $16 trillion by 2030, while McKinsey was more conservative with $2 trillion by 2024. Regardless of which is more accurate, the trend is clear.