VanEck Analyst: Bitcoin Shows Two Major Historical Bullish Signals—Hash Rate Decline and Negative Funding Rates

Crypto Mars News: VanEck analysts Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush wrote that Bitcoin has shown two historically bullish signals: negative funding rates and a decline in hash rate concentration, while volatility has cooled down. As tensions between the US and Iran eased, Bitcoin’s realized volatility dropped from 56% to 41%, and the 7-day average funding rate turned negative to -1.8%, hitting the lowest level since 2023. Historically, negative funding rates often indicate strong future gains: since 2020, the average 30-day return of Bitcoin during periods of negative funding rates has been +11.5%, compared to an overall return of +4.5%, with a hit rate of 77%. Funding rates below -5% have yielded +19.4% returns over a 30-day period. Additionally, hash rate has fallen to the 16th percentile over the past 30 days, marking the most concentrated hash rate decline since the mining ban in 2021. Of the last 7 hash rate declines, 6 occurred within 90 days before Bitcoin prices rose, with a median increase of +37.7%.