HTX DeepThink: Rate cut expectations delayed until after September, crypto market structure divergence intensifies

Deep Tide TechFlow News, April 27 — Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), author of the HTX DeepThink column and HTX Research analyst, pointed out that the current macro framework of the crypto market has shifted from “liquidity trading awaiting rate cuts” to a suppressive environment characterized by “higher interest rates for longer + sticky inflation + war shocks.” The latest Reuters survey shows that most economists have delayed rate cut expectations until after September, with nearly one-third believing there will be no rate cuts this year. The main reason is that the energy price surge triggered by the Middle East war has reignited inflation pressures, limiting the Federal Reserve’s policy space.

This change directly weakens the two main logical supports for crypto assets: expectations of loose liquidity and the downward interest rate path. Rising oil prices combined with continuous upward revisions of PCE inflation expectations increase the likelihood of maintaining high interest rates or extending them. The rise in discount rates and the contraction of risk budgets occur simultaneously, leading to reduced marginal capital inflows into the crypto market and overall pressure on high-volatility assets.

It is noteworthy that this round is not a typical “safe-haven rally.” Despite escalating geopolitical conflicts, gold and cryptocurrencies did not rise in tandem. Instead, a combination of rising interest rates and broad pressure on risk assets prevailed, indicating that the market is in a “liquidity contraction” phase rather than a “safe-haven rotation.” From a market structure perspective, the divergence is quite clear: BTC benefits from institutional funds, ETF allocations, and macro hedging narratives, showing relative resilience but still highly dependent on dollar liquidity and not detached from risk asset characteristics; ETH relies more on on-chain activity and capital reflows, with limited flexibility in the current environment; most altcoins, especially AI-themed assets and projects without cash flow support, remain in valuation compression and ongoing liquidity drain phases.

Overall, the crypto market is entering a “high interest rate + high uncertainty” stage. In the short term, the main trend is not a broad rally but structural differentiation and increased volatility. The key turning points depend on three variables: whether oil prices can fall back, whether rate expectations can be restored, and whether policy paths can become clearer. Until then, the market is likely to continue showing BTC relative strength and altcoins generally under pressure.

Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice and does not represent an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment product.