Current Situation and Strategy of Bitcoin (BTC)

Technical Support and Resistance

Key support level: around 85000 USD (daily level strong and weak dividing line), if it retraces to the 84500-85000 USD range, it may provide a bullish entry opportunity.

Resistance above: $86,200-$87,000 is the short-term selling pressure zone, a breakthrough requires increased trading volume. If it holds above $86,500, it may further challenge the target of $87,500-$89,000.

4-hour trend: MACD golden cross above the zero line, Bollinger Bands widening, price running along the EMA7 moving average, short-term upward momentum still exists.

Operation Suggestions

Long Strategy: If the price stabilizes in the range of 85000-85500 USD after a pullback, a small long position can be taken, with a stop loss set below 84000 USD and a target of 86500-87500 USD.

Short Position Strategy: If the price fails to break through the $87,000 resistance level and a volume increase pullback occurs, a light short position can be attempted in the $87,300-$86,300 range, with a stop-loss above $88,300.

Risk Warning: Be cautious of the impact of expectations regarding a shift in Federal Reserve policy and changes in market liquidity on short-term volatility.


Current Situation and Strategy of Ethereum (ETH)

Key technical points.

Support range: $1960-$1940 serves as strong support at the four-hour level. If it breaks, it may test the $1930 defense line.

Resistance area: $2021-2050 is the pressure zone for divergence between volume and price, and a breakthrough requires on-chain data repair or a boost in market confidence.

Volume-Price Relationship: The current trading volume remains sluggish, the hourly RSI is approaching overbought but has not triggered an extreme signal, and the rebound momentum is insufficient.

Operation Suggestions

Long strategy: If the price stabilizes in the range of 1980-2000 USD, you may attempt to go long with a light position, setting the stop loss below 1940 USD and the target at 2100-2200 USD.

Short Position Strategy: If it fails to hold above 2020 USD and breaks below the 2040 USD support, it can look down to the 1970-1930 USD range.

Risk Warning: The shrinking on-chain demand and the sluggish market sentiment remain core contradictions, and close attention should be paid to on-chain indicators such as burn volume and active addresses.


Comprehensive Market Observation

Advantages of Bitcoin: Large holders increased their positions (adding $3.4 billion in a single day on March 24) and the halving cycle effect supports a long-term bullish logic, but short-term technical correction risks need to be monitored.

Ethereum Weakness: Market activity has decreased, and the divergence between price and volume on the technical side is significant. In the short term, confidence needs to rely on macro policies or ecological upgrades.

Macro risks: The adjustment pace of Federal Reserve policies, geopolitical conflicts, and regulatory dynamics may trigger high volatility.


Real-time operation reminder: If the current price is within the mid-range of the consolidation zone, it is recommended to adopt a wait-and-see approach and enter the market only after a clear breakout signal. If you already have a position, you need to strictly set stop-loss orders and pay attention to the capital flow during the afternoon European and American trading sessions.