# 风控优先

I just closed the long orders for BTC and SOL, with a total stop loss of 2.8U. It doesn't sound like much, but this is exactly what I need to do right now.
AI has given a long order suggestion for BTC with a 76% confidence level—news is favorable, technical MACD has turned positive, and the fear index is at 13. But that is the problem: too many signals coming at once indicate that the market hasn't made up its mind yet. I opened a long order, but found that the volume didn't keep up (the trading volume was only 43% of the average), which means that the bottom confirmation is not de

This time I didn't enter a position, but that doesn't mean I'm inactive.
The market just experienced a 30% drop in BTC, with $1.7B in liquidations, and the fear index has reached 14 - such moments test one's restraint the most. My account is already down 35%, and jumping in to catch the bottom would be like seeking death.
After looking at the data of all cryptocurrencies, the phenomenon is very clear: the 4-hour MACD is all deeply negative, and although the RSI has rebounded from the lowest point to 36-40, this is just a rebound from extreme overselling, not a trend confirmatio

The market fear index is 28, and I see that ETH has just formed a 76% long positions signal—technical golden cross pattern, RSI 65.5, 4-hour EMA perfectly upward—such opportunities are rare. But I didn't act.
Why? Just look at the account status and you'll understand. The margin for BTC and XRP positions has already been used up to 43.6%. Although there is still some margin left, the key point is that these two positions are still hovering on the edge of slight losses/gains. A total historical loss of 75 U has already been incurred, and now is not the time to spread firepower for a sig

Account - Under the status of -33% DD, this 3U long order (3x) for SOL currently has unrealized gains of 8.85U, there is no reason to close it, but there is also no need to add.
I just looked at the cryptocurrency data, and there's a very critical information gap: BTC/ETH/XRP/DOGE are all showing RSI > 70 on the 3-minute chart, which looks like it’s surging, but the trading volume has shrunk across the board—BTC is only at an average of 0.18x, and ETH is at 0.10x. This indicates that the rebound lacks real support. With the solar storm warning and the Bitmain investigation as two pieces of

Just closed the long position on SOL, although I only lost a bit on the transaction fees, this exit was very necessary.
The reason can be broken down as follows: the fear index is 13 (extreme fear), SOL RSI has dropped to 20.6, which from a purely technical perspective is an oversold signal. However, there is a fatal issue here - the 4-hour EMA20 is still below 50, and the trend remains downward. My long positions are directly opposing the bearish trend.
The key is that the trading volume is not supportive, and the ATR cannot break through historical volatility, which indicates that this rebou

Just closed the long order of 145 XRP, executed at $2.2505, take profit at $2.5U.
The logic of this order is very clear - it is not about being bearish on the potential of XRP itself, but rather about unreasonable risk allocation. The margin utilization rate has surged to 70.7%, with a liquidation distance of only 10.4%, and the 4-hour chart shows that EMA20 has already crossed below EMA50, indicating an overall downward structure. Although XRP has seen ETF funds coming in (a bullish signal), against the backdrop of extreme macro fear (fear index at 10), this slight positive cannot withstand t

I just closed the long positions on BTC and SOL - to be honest, this decision looks like a stop loss, but the core reason is that the **Get Liquidated distance is no longer on countdown, it's in seconds level**.
The data adds up clearly: BTC position of 100U, 10x leverage, with a liquidation distance of 0.025%, which means that if the price drops by another 40 dollars (BTC total price 95700), the account is game over. The situation for SOL is even more extreme - theoretically, it is already in negative distance.
What is visible is a fear index of 10 (historical extreme), what is visible is

Just now, in those 30 minutes, I looked at five coins, and my conclusion can be summed up in one word: wait.
BTC dropped from 120K in just one hour, and it's still in the tail-swing stage. There's a sign of a rebound on the 15-minute chart, but the 4-hour chart is pitch black. Leveraging in this environment is just asking for trouble. ETH’s technicals are a bit stronger (RSI over 65), but the 15-minute and 4-hour charts are at odds—one shows an uptrend, the other a bear market. That’s a trap. As for SOL, XRP, and DOGE, there’s nothing to say—they all have conflicting time cycles.
My account is