#数字资产生态回暖 Fed finally cut interest rates, but Bitcoin still fell—what exactly is going on?

The most heartbreaking thing in the crypto world recently is this "good news turning into bad" reversal drama. Yesterday early morning, the Fed announced a 25 basis point rate cut. Many people were on edge, ready to迎接拉升行情. But what happened? Bitcoin instantly surged to 94,000, then quickly dropped back towards 90,000.

This kind of movement is really hard on investors—many have experienced the feeling of falling from cloud nine to the bottom.

The problem is, the market’s enthusiasm for this rate cut has already faded. On the surface, the rate cut met expectations, but in reality, the entire logical chain has changed. The Fed’s internal debates are ongoing, and the probability of further rate cuts in the coming months is extremely low. By 2026 and 2027, at most one more each—this pace won't accelerate. Powell pointed fingers at employment data, implying that the rate cut cycle might just end like this.

Without sustained liquidity support, what the market most lacks is new capital. Retail investors have lost interest, institutional players are watching from the sidelines, Japan is raising interest rates, and funds are starting to withdraw during the Christmas season—everything indicates that money will tighten further.

In the short term, unless there are unexpected positive catalysts, it’s difficult for the market to pick up. Thinking negatively, if more negative news comes out, Bitcoin might drop toward 80,000. The contradictions in the dot plot and Powell’s inconsistent words and actions reflect a lack of clear direction among decision-makers, which intensifies market sentimentality.

In the long run, the logic of the crypto market remains, but the short-term trading space has been severely compressed. The key now is which economic data will truly trigger a rally—this warrants ongoing attention.