# ETH 4-Hour Chart - Calm Analysis

Looked at ETH's recent performance, it's been hovering around the $3125 level, and honestly it's not comfortable. After failing to push higher, it started dropping. The current situation is like being pressed underwater with no room to breathe.

Let's look at the numbers. Today's change is -0.812%, with support at 3082 (Bollinger Band lower rail), and resistance at 3195+ (moving average and Bollinger Band midline). This range is like a cage, very difficult to break through.

Technical picture is not great:

All moving averages are in reverse order - the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day lines are lined up with price squeezed below. MACD has a death cross, DIF is over 6 points below DEA, and the histogram is negative and expanding. Bollinger Bands are contracting, volatility is declining. RSI entered oversold territory (6-day line 25.44, 14-day line 39.84), but no divergence signal showing yet. KDJ also death crossed, K line just above 22, D line at 24, very bearish setup.

Funding is interesting. Perpetual funding rate is negative at -0.00025100%, indicating perpetual longs are getting tired. Volume expanded noticeably during drops, reaching 1.4M in that period - selling pressure is real. More painful: short-term capital (1h, 4h) is flowing in, but medium-to-long term (12h, 24h, 3-day) is flowing out heavily. Spot is worse, all cycles showing outflows - capital is clearly pessimistic.

Price action shows: after the failed push at 3180 resistance, continuous decline with volume. Now only 2.3% away from today's low of 3052, downside momentum hasn't fully dissipated.

So what's the strategy?

**Short Setup (proceed cautiously)**: On a bounce to the 3150-3170 resistance zone, consider adding shorts in tranches. Stop loss at 3220 (3% range, above MA20 and Bollinger midline), targets at 3050-3080 (3-4% profit, corresponding to Bollinger lower rail and today's low).

But don't be too aggressive. RSI is currently oversold, technical bounce risk is real. Also, if price breaks 3180 decisively and holds above 3200, the short thesis needs rethinking - you may need to consider closing or adjusting strategy.

Disclaimer: This is analysis reference only, not investment advice. Crypto trading carries extreme risk, think carefully before entering any position.