December US nonfarm employment data just released—only 64,000 new jobs added. That number is quite striking. Last month was only 60,000, two consecutive months of weakness. Compared to the usual 200,000-300,000 level over the past two years, the gap is significant. Market reaction has been pretty straightforward: the labor market is cooling rapidly.

With the data out, everyone immediately started analyzing the Fed's next moves. After all, the Fed has consistently viewed full employment as an important reference for rate cuts. With employment this weak now, rate cut expectations have naturally been reactivated. Following this logic, the US dollar could weaken, bond yields could fall, gold could rise, and risk assets like cryptocurrencies could also benefit from improved liquidity.

But there's a detail that can't be ignored. Subsequent wage data is equally critical—if wage growth also slows down, the rate cut narrative becomes more convincing; but if wages remain elevated, it creates a contradiction: weak employment but strong inflation resilience, and the Fed might actually be more hesitant. Also don't forget that winter itself tends to be affected by seasonal factors, so this data has limited explanatory power. We really need to wait until January to judge whether this is a trend or short-term fluctuation.

For traders, this report can indeed shake market expectations and potentially push up valuations of risk assets like cryptocurrencies. But you also have to watch out for one trap: the market may have already priced in rate cut expectations in advance. If subsequent CPI data doesn't cooperate and Fed policy reverses, the risk when expectations fail will be huge.

To put it simply, weaker employment data is a signal, but not the whole signal. The truly ideal scenario is weak employment with inflation cooling in sync. We've achieved the first half now; the key is whether inflation cooperates. Cryptocurrencies may have opportunities in the short term, but volatility has never been small. Ordinary investors shouldn't get carried away by 'massive liquidity injection' expectations—you still need to keep close watch on subsequent data and the Fed's actual stance.