## Bitcoin's Classic Market Rhythm Has Been Rewritten: From Cyclical Patterns to Structural Transformation

Once, Bitcoin followed an almost iron-clad four-year cycle — each halvings event triggered 12 to 18 months of explosive growth. The halvings cycles of 2013, 2017, and 2021 all validated this pattern: markets were forced to push up prices due to supply shocks. But 2025 broke this spell.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading near $90.47K, showing a certain pullback from the all-time high of $126.08K. More critically, the entire market's behavioral logic has undergone a "cycle of corruption"-style transformation — the original cyclical operating mechanism has been completely reshaped.

## Diminishing Returns: Institutionalization Reduces Volatility

A key chart clearly displays one phenomenon: each rally is smaller than the previous cycle. This is not coincidence, but rather a manifestation of deep changes in market structure.

Since spot ETFs were approved in the United States, Bitcoin has evolved from a high-risk speculative asset into a "macro asset class." The influx of institutional capital changed the game rules — this large-scale "formal army" entrance eliminated the once-extreme volatility. Bitcoin is no longer viewed as a bet on the next 10x coin, but has been incorporated into the risk management framework of traditional investment portfolios.

Historical data confirms: in March 2024, Bitcoin already created an all-time high, which was a month before the actual halvings event. In contrast, past halvings typically had to wait a year or even longer to see the top. Spot ETFs drained the market's speculative liquidity — the "institutional-level capital wave" that should have arrived in 2025 had already detonated early in 2024.

## Continuous Collapse of Statistical Patterns

Bitcoin once also followed another iron rule: 1 bear market year coupled with 3 bull market years. But this pattern was broken in 2025. This is the first time since the 2014 bear market that Bitcoin failed to complete three consecutive years of green candles.

Even more noteworthy: Bitcoin's full-year return in 2025 was -4.77%, the first time on record that the annual close return failed to exceed 10%. This data intuitively reflects a reality — Bitcoin's volatility has significantly declined.

From the perspective of the halving mechanism, supply shocks should have been the direct driver of prices. But when the market is dominated by ETF flows and institutional holdings, a single supply factor can no longer dominate the price rhythm. Bitcoin's performance of 1-year return of -4.77% is the numerical footnote of this structural transformation.

All of this points to one conclusion: Bitcoin has evolved from a cyclical asset into a correlational asset, and the era of its operations being dominated by supply shocks has become history.