#美国贸易赤字状况 JPMorgan Chase's latest research report has given a key judgment: the crypto market's year-end de-risking wave is about to conclude.

Over the past quarter, the outflow of funds from Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs has indeed been alarming, but starting from January 2026, the momentum of this selling pressure has clearly begun to converge. Perpetual futures and CME futures position indicators also show that the deleveraging operations conducted over the entire previous quarter are basically complete. Most importantly, MSCI decided in its February index review to temporarily not exclude crypto-related companies from global stock indices, which is a major positive for market sentiment.

Interestingly, many people have been shouting about liquidity deterioration, but the report points out that the market breadth of CME and mainstream ETFs is actually still normal. The real root cause was the MSCI exclusion expectations from October last year, which frightened institutions into advancing their deleveraging ahead of time. This adjustment wave is now nearly finished.

To put it plainly, the market is transitioning from a correction phase into base consolidation, not the beginning of a crash. Those who panic-sold at year-end simply gave institutions better entry points for bottom-hunting. In Q1 2026, various indicators are sending signals for a rebound—the second phase of the institutional bull market is just beginning to warm up, and how things move forward will depend on when the macro environment, policy direction, and capital truly return to fill positions.