#Gate正式接入Polymarket Coin Circle: Another Path to Profit Beyond Spot and Futures—Polymarket

What is Polymarket? Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform based on blockchain technology. It allows users to trade and bet on the outcomes of various future events such as politics, economics, technology, culture, sports, weather, and even cryptocurrencies, thereby forming collective predictions about event results.

In simple terms, you can understand it as a market where you "vote" with real money to predict the future. For example, predicting the Federal Reserve's decision in March: betting "yes" or "no" on whether there will be a rate cut of 50 basis points or more in March. If you bet "yes," it means you believe there will be a 50 basis point rate cut in March. Then, if the final rate cut decision matches your expectation, your 1 dollar bet will earn you 1000 dollars in profit. However, if the final decision differs from your expectation, you lose the amount you bet. The difference from pure gambling is that before the final result is determined, you can choose to exit at any time by selling your betting shares. Since the probability of the event itself is constantly changing, this means that once you place a bet, the floating gains or losses on your invested capital are continuously changing.

For example, still betting on the rate cut question above, if you bet "no" for 5 dollars, meaning you believe there won't be a 50 basis point rate cut in March, and currently the probability of the Federal Reserve not cutting rates is over 99%. This means if the final decision comes out maintaining interest rates unchanged, your 5 dollar bet will still be 5 dollars, meaning your account breaks even with no profit or loss. Because the event of no 50 basis point rate cut in March is already an approximately certain event. However, if before the rate cut decision comes out, something significant happens in the United States or economic problems emerge, causing the probability of not cutting rates in March to decline somewhat, and the market sees a small portion of people beginning to think that this event might cause the Federal Reserve to surprisingly cut rates. Then at this point, betting "no," you might have your 5 dollar bet with a floating gain of 2 dollars. Before the final decision comes out, you choose to sell your betting position and get a real 2 dollar gain. But if you don't sell the 2 dollar floating gain in time, and wait until the rate cut decision comes out, and it turns out rates remain unchanged with no cut. Then your floating gain disappears, and the system automatically settles at breakeven. This is quite interesting—after betting on a predicted event, you can choose to exit at any time based on changes in probability, meaning you can choose to stop loss or take profit in the middle before the event is finally confirmed. This is unlike traditional predictions where after placing a bet you can only wait for the result.

So Polymarket is not a completely gambling platform, because the probability of prediction itself can be financialized, and probability can be bought low and sold high through financial means. So the changes in probability themselves are tortuous and tradable.

What is the relationship between Polymarket and the crypto circle?

First, Polymarket uses blockchain technology at its foundation, utilizing smart contracts on the blockchain to handle transactions and settlement. After the event result is confirmed, the smart contract executes automatically, with winning contracts becoming worth 1 dollar and losing ones worth 0. Users generate profits by buying low and selling high or holding to maturity.

Second, Polymarket accounts can trade through cryptocurrency, for example, we can deposit funds from exchange accounts like G to this platform to conduct prediction market trading. Additionally, we can directly call decentralized wallets to trade, just like calling wallets in dapps, which is very convenient.

Finally, Polymarket has predictions about cryptocurrency price movements.

We can predict whether Bitcoin will rise or fall based on time cycles such as 5 minutes, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours, daily, etc.

Combined with Chan Theory, if we currently judge that a 15-minute level downtrend is about to begin, and a 15-minute level downtrend requires at least 5-9 hours to run, then we can predict that over the next 4 hours or 8 hours it will be bearish and Bitcoin's price will move downward. Based on this judgment, we can bet that the current 4 hours or the next 4h will be bearish. As Bitcoin's price changes every minute and second during the session, the probability of its 4h rising or falling is constantly changing, so whether you bet on rises or falls, the odds are also constantly changing. Your account's floating gains or losses are also changing. But we can still apply this betting mode to generalized financialization. Through our understanding of short to medium-term market movements, we can place bets.

For example, on March 4th, the 1-hour large bullish candle directly pulled up to 69688. Based on basic crypto knowledge and understanding, this momentum would likely continue to rise subsequently, at least breaking through the previous high of 70096. So we bet on 1h bullish movement, betting 100 dollars. The result was a slight pullback in the first half hour, putting the account in a floating loss state. In the second half hour, it started rising, with Bitcoin directly pulling to 71000. Finally, the 1-hour bullish prediction succeeded. In just one hour, 100 dollars of betting profit was 140 dollars, more than doubling the profit.

How to make money on Polymarket in the crypto circle?

1. Quantitative compounding of prediction markets

Quantitative trading should be familiar to everyone—for example, Bitcoin spot quantitative trading, futures quantitative trading, or quantitative trading in stock markets or other markets. It can be understood as: we use programs to leverage indicators at the underlying level, historical trading volume and other data, as well as mathematical models and statistical analysis to discover patterns and probability advantages in the market, designing a set of buying and selling rules. When price movements match the pre-designed buying trading strategy at the underlying level, the program automatically buys for you. When price movements match the selling trading strategy, the program automatically sells for you.

2. Obtaining Polymarket airdrops

Currently, Polymarket awards points for trading and reaching certain transaction volumes through interactions on the platform, which can be exchanged for airdropped tokens in the future.

From current information, Polymarket is very likely to launch a token in the second half of this year or next year. Continuous trading can earn you tokens from their airdrop.

The airdrop is estimated to provide approximately 1000-3000 dollars worth per account.