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#美联储加息预期再起
特朗普暫停打擊10天,我判斷是緩兵之計而非真談判——10天根本不夠外交斡旋,更像是為下一步行動爭取窗口。
美聯儲"暴力加息"概率我認為不高,但降息時間表肯定繼續推遲。真正的風險是滯脹——經濟走弱+通脹回升,讓美聯儲陷入兩難。
布局策略:
• 黃金:最確定的多頭,避險+抗通脹雙邏輯,回調買入
• 原油:地緣溢價隨時回歸,逢低布局
• BTC:短期流動性壓制,但去美元化長期利好,分批定投
亂局之中,黃金是最好的避風港。