Hyperliquid Head Treasury Strategy Analysis: From High Frequency Alpha to Risk Management

Author: Kevin

The vaults ecosystem on the Hyperliquid platform provides investors with a unique window to observe and participate in on-chain derivatives strategies managed by professionals. This article offers a systematic quantitative analysis and strategy deconstruction of the most prominent top vaults within this ecosystem.

Evaluation Framework and Data Methodology

To conduct an objective, multi-dimensional comparison, we selected five representative vaults on Hyperliquid with leading management scale and performance: AceVault, Growi HF, Systemic Strategies, Amber Ridge, and MC Recovery Fund.

Our evaluation framework centers around the following core metrics to build a comprehensive profile of each vault’s strategy:

Performance Metrics:

Total Return (PNL), number of profitable trades, total number of trades, Win Rate (Win Rate), Profit Factor (Profit Factor).

Trading Efficiency Metrics:

Average profit/loss per trade, average profit per trade, average loss per trade.

Risk Management Metrics:

Maximum Drawdown (Max Drawdown), standard deviation of profit/loss per trade, profit/loss volatility ratio (i.e., average profit/loss divided by standard deviation).

Strategy Attribution Metrics:

Profit/loss contribution by each asset, long/short position preferences for specific assets.

Regarding data collection, we extracted the longest available historical trading data for each vault stored on Hyperliquid. It’s important to note that due to platform data storage limitations, high-frequency trading vaults (HFT) have relatively short historical data periods, ranging from three days to two months; for strategies with lower trading frequency, we can observe longer performance histories.

AceVault Hyper01

Analysis period: October 16, 2025 – October 20, 2025

1.1 Strategy Overview and Market Position

AceVault Hyper01 is not only one of the vaults with the largest Total Value Locked (TVL) within the Hyperliquid ecosystem but also exhibits impressive performance. As of October 20, 2025, its TVL has reached $14.33 million. Since launching in August 2025, this strategy has accumulated $1.29 million in profits, with an annualized return (APR) over the past month reaching 127%, demonstrating strong and sustainable alpha generation.

1.2 Trading Behavior and Performance Quantification

During the four-day analysis period, this vault recorded 19,338 closed trades, providing a high-precision sample for strategy deconstruction.

Core Performance Metrics:

Net Profit (Total PNL): +$103,110.82

Win Rate (Win Rate): 28%

Profit Factor (Profit Factor): 3.71

Profit/Loss Structure Analysis:

Average profit/loss per trade (Avg. PNL): +$5.33

Average profit per trade (Avg. Win): +$26.00

Average loss per trade (Avg. Loss): $2.70

Risk Metrics:

Maximum Drawdown (Max Drawdown): $791.20

Standard deviation of profit/loss per trade (StdDev of PNL): 26.84

Profit/Loss Volatility Ratio (Avg. PNL / StdDev): 0.199

1.3 Strategy Profile and Risk Attribution

Strategy Profile: High-Frequency, Asymmetric, Systematic Shorting

AceVault’s trading frequency ranks among the highest across all vaults, characteristic of an ultra-high-frequency (HFT) strategy. Its win rate is only 28%, yet the profit factor reaches 3.71, reflecting a typical trend-following or momentum strategy: it does not rely on high win rates but instead profits from a few highly profitable trades (average profit $26.00) to offset numerous small losses (average loss $2.70).

This highly asymmetric profit/loss structure is central to its profitability model.

Profit Attribution: Dominance of Altcoin Shorts

The strategy’s trading universe is broad (covering 77 assets), but its long/short operations show remarkable consistency and discipline:

Long positions: only executed on BTC, ETH, and HYPE.

Short positions: applied to all other 74 altcoins.

In this analysis period, the source of profits is very clear:

Short positions: total profit +$137,804

Long positions: total loss -$33,726

This indicates that AceVault’s entire net profit stems from systematic shorting across 74 altcoins. The largest profit position is from $FXS shorting (+$34,579), while the largest loss is from $HYPE long positions (-$16,100).

Risk Management: Extreme Loss Control

The vault demonstrates textbook-level risk management. With a TVL of $14.33 million and nearly 20,000 trades, its maximum drawdown over four days was tightly controlled at $791.20. This aligns with the average loss per trade of $2.70, confirming the strategy’s built-in, highly strict stop-loss mechanisms.

1.4 Summary

AceVault Hyper01 is a logically clear, strictly executed, highly systematic high-frequency strategy. Its core approach involves holding a basket of long positions on major assets (possibly as Beta hedges or long-term holdings), while systematically executing high-frequency shorting on a broader set of altcoins.

During the analyzed market cycle, its excess returns are entirely derived from accurately capturing declines in altcoins. Its top-tier risk control system ensures that, despite low win rates, losses are kept within tiny, manageable bounds, enabling healthy and robust overall profitability.

Summary

Through in-depth quantitative analysis of Hyperliquid’s five top vaults (AceVault, Growi HF, Systemic Strategies, Amber Ridge, MC Recovery Fund), we can see beyond the surface-level high APR and total profits to understand the core of their strategies — not all high returns are “created equal.”

Our analysis reveals several key conclusions:

1. Risk control, rather than win rate, is the foundation of top strategies: Contrary to traditional beliefs, the most successful vaults in this analysis do not rely on high win rates (AceVault 28%, Growi HF 38%, MC Recovery Fund 48%). Instead, their success stems from a common, strictly enforced logic: an asymmetric profit/loss structure.

2. The model of “asymmetric victory”: The MC Recovery Fund exemplifies this pattern. Its 43.1 profit factor is astonishing, backed by near-perfect risk control: average loss per trade is only $18, while average profit reaches +$862. Growi HF (profit factor 10.76) also demonstrates this. This indicates their profit models are not based on “winning more often,” but on “suffering small losses when wrong and capturing large gains when right.”

3. Maximum drawdown as a “stress test”: Comparing the “Maximum Drawdown” and “Drawdown Ratio” columns, the strategies’ robustness is clearly distinguished. MC Recovery Fund (drawdown $3,922) and AceVault (drawdown $791) showcase textbook-level risk control, with historical maximum drawdowns nearly negligible.

In contrast, Amber Ridge’s drawdown reached $340,000, accounting for 87% of its total profit, indicating investors experienced extreme volatility approaching “profit zero.” Systemic Strategies’ recent $128,000 drawdown also exposes vulnerabilities in its model.

4. Sources of Alpha vary: Successful strategies follow different paths. AceVault profits from systematic shorting of altcoins via high-frequency trading; Growi HF is an aggressive long-hunter capturing trends under strict risk control; MC Recovery Fund demonstrates mature long/short balance, functioning as an “all-weather” strategy. This diversity highlights the depth of the Hyperliquid ecosystem, allowing different types of Alpha strategies to coexist.

For investors, evaluating vaults should never rely solely on APR. The true value of a strategy lies in its profit/loss factor and maximum drawdown, which reveal its risk management capabilities. In the high-volatility, high-leverage arena of Hyperliquid, an asymmetric profit/loss structure is key to long-term profitability, and extreme risk control is the only path to victory.