HBAR price big dump liquidation of 1 billion USD! RSI divergence suggests rebound is imminent.

Hedera (HBAR) fell 25%, with futures liquidations exceeding $1 billion, indicating severe turbulence and fluctuation in the market. Technically, senior trader Matthew Dixon pointed out that the RSI bullish divergence shows that bearish pressure is weakening, with prices remaining stable or declining while the RSI begins to rise; this pattern typically appears before a reversal.

The $1 billion liquidation wave shows extreme market fluctuation

Hedera (HBAR) has fallen by 11% in just the past 24 hours, while trading activity surged. The futures trading volume reached $472.17 million, and the spot trading volume reached $150.03 million, with Binance leading the way with a futures trading volume of $141.45 million in HBAR. This combination of price decline along with a surge in trading volume is a typical characteristic of panic selling.

The liquidation volume surged nearly 100% within just 24 hours, liquidating trades worth over 1 billion USD, most of which were long positions. This indicates that many traders were caught off guard during the HBAR price decline, with over-leveraged long positions being forcibly closed. A liquidation scale of 1 billion USD in a single asset is extremely rare and typically only occurs during systematic shocks in the market.

The long-short ratio is currently slightly bearish, with an increase in short positions. The open interest has also dropped to 151.94 million USD, which indicates that some traders have temporarily exited the market. The decline in open interest can be interpreted in two ways: one is that investors have lost confidence in HBAR and choose to exit; the other is passive liquidation caused by forced liquidations. According to the liquidation data, the latter may be the main reason.

Despite the decrease in open interest, the trading volume across exchanges remains high, especially at Bitunix, where the trading volume surged by 123%. This indicates that many people are still closely monitoring the market recovery. High trading volume combined with falling prices often means that a large number of chips are changing hands at low levels, and this turnover is usually a precursor to bottom formation. If buying pressure continues to absorb selling pressure at the current price level, the HBAR price may establish effective support in the coming days.

Three Technical Features of HBAR Price Plunge:

Futures Clearing 1 Billion USD: Leverage longs have been largely liquidated, short-term selling pressure released

Open interest drops to 151.94 million USD: Market participation declines, panic sentiment is strong.

Trading volume remains high at 351 million USD: Active turnover may form a bottoming structure.

RSI bullish divergence indicates trend reversal

(Source: Trading View)

Senior trader Matthew Dixon's analysis article published on X indicates that the HBAR price may be preparing for a rebound. The charts show that since October 11, HBAR has exhibited long wicks, indicating that there was a significant sell-off previously but was quickly bought back. This long wick is commonly referred to as a “hammer” and is a typical bottom reversal pattern, meaning that although selling pressure is fierce, buying occurs at critical levels to provide support.

Prices remain stable or decline, while the RSI begins to rise, indicating signs of bullish divergence. This pattern often appears before a reversal, as selling pressure starts to wane. RSI (Relative Strength Index) divergence is one of the most reliable reversal signals in technical analysis. When prices create new lows but the RSI does not, it indicates that the bearish momentum is weakening and the selling pressure is gradually exhausting.

However, the RSI is still below 50, which means the bulls have not fully taken control. An RSI below 50 indicates that the overall trend is still bearish, although the bullish divergence suggests a potential reversal, but more confirmation signals are needed. Dixon pointed out that a breakout of the RSI and price (along with volume support) could drive the HBAR price up to the $0.19-0.20 range, which is a key area where it traded before the fall.

Why is the 0.19-0.20 dollar range so critical? This is the resistance level that HBAR has tested multiple times during this round of pump, and it is also the upper boundary of the previous consolidation range. In technical analysis, there is a theory of “resistance turning into support”; if the price can effectively break through this area, that position will transform into new support, providing a foundation for subsequent increases. From the distribution of trading volume, there is a large amount of historical trading record near the 0.19-0.20 dollar area, and the costs of these holders are concentrated in this range.

Dixon stated: “#HBAR seems to be in a consolidation phase, and is expected to break out and pump, but the consolidation may continue for a while. In my opinion, this is a great token and may be worth doing DCA trading around this price point.” DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) is a more stable strategy in uncertain market environments, averaging costs through batch purchases to reduce the impact of single decision-making errors.

Market Fluctuation and Exchange Performance Analysis

The market capitalization of HBAR also suffered a heavy blow, falling from about 9.3 billion USD to 6.7 billion USD during the period from October 11 to 17. This indicates that the entire market is facing strong selling pressure, evaporating about 2.6 billion USD in market value. Such a scale of market value loss occurring in just one week shows that the selling pressure on the HBAR price is extremely fierce, possibly stemming from large holders exiting, project teams selling off, or a chain reaction of overall market panic.

In the middle of this week, HBAR's market value slightly rebounded, reaching around 8.2 billion USD, but this trend did not last long. Subsequently, another fall occurred, but the latest data shows a slight rebound. This fluctuating change in market value is a typical bottoming process. The market is searching for a balanced price that is acceptable to both buyers and sellers, and this process requires time and multiple tests.

This may be an early sign of buyers returning to the market at lower levels. Trading volume remains stable, indicating that people are still actively trading HBAR even after the fall. Over the past week, trading volume across major cryptocurrency exchanges has remained steady. HBAR has significantly fallen in the past 7 days, but the trading volume remains strong, exceeding $351 million, showing that traders are still closely monitoring.

HBAR and the broader cryptocurrency community are recovering from the recent crash that triggered large-scale liquidations. This crash is related to the market risk aversion sentiment caused by Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, with the crypto market being hit first, leading to over $20 billion in digital asset open contracts being forcibly liquidated in a short time. HBAR, as an asset in the top 30 by market cap, was also not spared from this systemic shock.

From the performance of the exchanges, Bitunix's trading volume skyrocketed by 123%, showing that users on the platform have a surge of interest in trading HBAR. Binance led with a futures trading volume of 141.45 million USD, indicating that users on mainstream exchanges are still actively participating in HBAR trading. This level of activity at the exchange level is an important support for HBAR's price bottoming out, as it proves that the market has not given up on this asset.

Short-term rebound may be accompanied by risk warning

Overall, recent HBAR price and chart signals suggest that HBAR may be nearing a bottom. If the RSI breaks above the 50 neutral line along with a price breakout at key levels, a short-term rebound could form soon. However, investors need to recognize that while bullish divergence is an important technical signal, it does not guarantee that a reversal will occur. The market may continue to fluctuate or even decline further after the divergence forms.

For investors considering building a position at current levels, it is recommended to adopt a DCA strategy to buy in batches. An initial position can be established around $0.16, and if the price further drops to $0.14-$0.15, additional positions can be added, with a stop loss set below $0.13. The target can be set at $0.19-$0.20, which is the key resistance area pointed out by Dixon. If this area is broken, the next target will be $0.22-$0.25.

In terms of risk, it is important to note that macroeconomic uncertainty remains a major threat. Factors such as Sino-U.S. trade tensions, U.S. government shutdowns, and Federal Reserve policies may trigger a new round of market Fluctuation at any time. Additionally, the fundamentals of HBAR also need continuous attention, including the development progress of the Hedera network, partnerships, and the expansion of practical application scenarios.