Understanding Hedera in One Article (HBAR): The enterprise-level public chain actively lays out the RWA and AI track, with ETF progress being followed.

In the cryptocurrency market of 2025, Hedera ( HBAR ) has become one of the key bridges connecting traditional finance and the blockchain world, thanks to its unique enterprise-level governance structure, continuously growing network activity, and substantial progress in the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA). Despite a significant recent pullback in price, the potential demonstrated by its fundamentals and the extreme fluctuations in market sentiment present investors with a high-risk, high-reward decision proposition.

1. Fundamental Analysis of the Ecosystem

1. Key Indicators Highlight Network Vitality

The core metrics of the Hedera network show strong utility value orientation:

• Network Activity: According to AInvest data, HBAR processed over 1.2 billion monthly transactions in June 2025, with a daily trading volume rising by 25.8%, reflecting that its network is being driven by real applications rather than mere speculative activities.
• Total Value Locked (TVL) and DeFi Ecosystem: Despite recent price fluctuations, its DeFi ecosystem continues to develop. Its leading decentralized exchange SaucerSwap has achieved over $284 million in trading volume in the past 30 days, indicating active capital circulation within the ecosystem.
• Institutional Fund Flows: On-chain data shows that since October 2024, the number of whale addresses holding between 1 million and 10 million HBAR has continued to increase, indicating that large investors remain confident in its long-term prospects.

2. Unique Positioning and Technical Moat

Hedera's core competitiveness lies in its underlying architecture designed for enterprise-level applications:

• Hashgraph: Unlike traditional Blockchain, it uses an Asynchronous Byzantine Fault Tolerance (aBFT) consensus mechanism, achieving a processing capacity of over 10,000 transactions per second (TPS), with transaction finality in just 3-5 seconds, while maintaining carbon-negative emissions, which is highly environmentally attractive.
• Enterprise Governance: The Hedera Council, composed of 39 global giant companies (including Google, IBM, Boeing, Deutsche Telekom, etc.), jointly manages the network. This governance model offers high stability and compliance, which is key to attracting traditional enterprises.
• Comparison with Competitors: Compared to public chains like Ethereum, Hedera has significant advantages in transaction speed, costs, and environmental friendliness. In comparison to emerging public chains like Hyperliquid, Hedera's moat lies in its robust architecture, which has been validated over many years and is backed by world-class enterprises, focusing more on serving high-frequency, large-scale enterprise applications rather than pure financial speculation.

3. Token Economic Model: Transparency Controversies and Inflationary Pressures

The token economic model of HBAR is its most controversial part and also a risk point that potential investors must be cautious of.

• Supply Controversy: The maximum supply of HBAR is 50 billion coins. However, the community has concerns about the transparency of its supply growth, with reports indicating that its circulating supply has been steadily increasing from the initial 32 billion to 47 billion, and has now reached 50 billion. This lack of clear communication regarding the supply growth may have a persistent suppressive effect on the price.
• Value Accumulation Mechanism: HBAR is used to pay transaction fees on the network, secure the network, and earn rewards through staking (currently with an annual interest rate of about 6%-8%). Its core value relies on the rise in network usage. With the explosion of applications such as RWA and stablecoins (the total amount of on-chain stablecoins has exceeded 212 million USD), the practical demand for the Token is expected to increase.

2. Technical Analysis and Development Forecast

The price of HBAR has recently experienced a rollercoaster market, providing clear clues for technical analysis.

1. Current Price Trends and Key Patterns

• Severe Pullback and Searching for Support: HBAR experienced a significant decline in mid-October, dropping over 10% within 24 hours, with the price briefly touching a low of $0.1688. Since then, the price has repeatedly contested around the key psychological level of $0.17, and at one point rebounded to $0.1745.
• Key Chart Patterns: During the period from September to October, the chart formed a potential double bottom pattern and a descending wedge, which are typically seen as bullish continuation signals. However, the crash in October undermined the integrity of this structure, and the market needs time to rebuild confidence.

2. Technical Indicator Signals

• Support and Resistance Levels:
  • Immediate Support: $0.168 - $0.172 range has become a key support zone recently. Losing this level may open up further downward space.
  • Key Resistance: The strong resistance above is in the $0.23 - $0.242 range. Successfully breaking through this area is the first important signal to confirm the reversal of the mid-term bullish trend.
• Volume Analysis: During the price decline, the trading volume surged by 71%, indicating significant selling pressure. In the subsequent rebound, although there was a short-term increase in volume, the sustainability was lacking, showing that buying interest remains cautious.

3. Price Prediction

• Short-term (1-4 weeks): It is expected to oscillate between $0.17 - $0.23. If it holds the $0.17 support and is accompanied by increasing volume, it is likely to test the $0.23 resistance level again. Conversely, if it breaks the support, it may drop to $0.15.
• Medium Term (3-6 Months): If the overall Crypto Assets market sentiment warms up, and HBAR can effectively break through $0.242, technical analysis indicates that the next target is at $0.30, with the potential to challenge this year's high of $0.40. Some analysts predict the next bull market cycle to be between $0.50 - $0.70.
• Long-term (over 1 year): Long-term value entirely depends on the leap in network adoption rate. If enterprise adoption progresses as expected, the fully diluted valuation (FDV) is expected to reach over $10 billion, with price targets ranging from $1.00 to $1.20.

3. Summary of Opportunities and Risks

Bullish Catalysts:

1. ETF Expectations: The market's expectation for the HBAR spot ETF is currently the biggest potential positive factor. The SEC is expected to make a decision on the relevant applications in November, and if approved, it will bring significant institutional funds and legitimacy to HBAR.
2. RWA Narrative Comes True: Hedera has taken the lead in the tokenization of real-world assets, with the real estate platform StegX tokenizing over $100 million in assets and the carbon credit platform DOVU handling $1.1 billion in carbon credits. These applications will create real demand for HBAR.
3. Strategic Cooperation and AI Integration: Collaborations with tech giants such as NVIDIA aim to integrate Hashgraph technology with AI and GPU computing, opening up new application scenarios and continuously enhancing its technological narrative.
4. Powerful Enterprise Circle: The council's members are continuously expanding, and the ongoing support from industry giants provides unparalleled credibility and business expansion channels for the network.

Risk Factors:

1. Token Supply Transparency: As mentioned earlier, the opacity of token supply is the sword of Damocles hanging over investors, which may continue to trigger a crisis of trust and selling pressure.
2. Regulatory Uncertainty: Although the governance structure is compliant, the entire Crypto Assets market still faces regulatory pressure. If HBAR is classified as a security by regulators, it will have a severe impact on it. However, under the new leadership of the SEC during Trump's administration, they have abandoned the approach of former chairman Gary Gensler and are actively embracing the crypto industry while continuously promoting regulatory development. The risk of HBAR being classified as a security has naturally decreased.
3. Market competition is fierce: Other public chains (such as Solana, Avalanche, etc.) are also rapidly evolving, vying for enterprise and developer resources, and Hedera faces intense market competition.
4. Technical Execution Risk: Despite the advanced nature of Hashgraph technology, any network interruption or security vulnerability could severely damage its reputation as an enterprise-grade infrastructure.

4. FAQ

1、What is Hedera (HBAR)?

Hedera is a public distributed ledger designed for enterprise-level applications, utilizing a unique hashgraph consensus mechanism. Its native Token HBAR is used to pay network fees, for staking, and for network security.

2、Is HBAR worth investing in?

This is a high-risk, high-potential return investment. It has a solid technological foundation, strong corporate partnerships, and real use case prospects. However, investors must be wary of the controversies surrounding its Token economic model, high Fluctuation, and the overall risks of the Crypto Assets market. It is suitable for investors with a higher risk appetite who are focused on long-term value.

3、Will HBAR rise or fall in the short term?

The short-term trend is extremely uncertain, primarily driven by market sentiment, BTC trends, and ETF-related news. The technical indicators show that it is searching for bottom support, but the short-term trend remains biased towards fluctuation until a breakthrough is confirmed in the $0.23-$0.24 resistance zone.

4、What is the long-term potential of HBAR?

The long-term potential is huge, but it completely relies on the widespread adoption of its ecosystem. If its collaborations in the fields of RWA, DeFi, and AI can be implemented on a large scale, generating significant network transaction demand, the long-term price outlook is promising.

5、What is the best strategy for investing in HBAR?

For new investors, it is advisable to adopt a cautious and step-by-step strategy. Consider gradually building a position near the current support level, and set the stop-loss below the key support (e.g., $0.16). Treat HBAR as a high-risk allocation in the portfolio and strictly control the position ratio.

V. Conclusion

Hedera (HBAR) presents a picture to the market that is full of contradictions yet highly enticing: on one side is the “top student” with strong technical capabilities and prominent allies, while on the other side is the “controversial figure” with fluctuating prices and a community filled with doubts. In 2025, a new cycle defined by institutional drivers and real-world asset tokenization, Hedera's unique positioning makes it impossible to ignore. However, investing in it means you need to simultaneously believe in the future of its technology and calmly accept the current tests posed by its token economic model and market fluctuations. Ultimately, whether HBAR can deliver on its promises will depend on its ability to transform strong partnerships into unstoppable network effects, which requires time and patient validation.