XRP Today News: The United States is considering implementing export restrictions on China, and the ETF latency has led to the start of the $2.2 defense war.

XRP has weakened for the second consecutive day, as tensions in US-China trade escalate. The US is considering implementing export restrictions on Chinese software-driven goods, and with the US government shutdown entering its 22nd day, the approval of the XRP Spot ETF is delayed. Under the double pressure of unfavourable information, XRP has fallen below the 50-day and 200-day EMA. From a technical perspective, $2.2 has become a key support level, and a drop below it could test the psychological barrier of $2.0.

The Escalation of Trade Wars and Trump's Contradictory Signals Devastate the Market

The tense situation in US-China trade impacts XRP and the broader cryptocurrency market. According to XRP today's news, the US government is considering implementing export restrictions on software-driven goods to China. The software restrictions would be a retaliation against Beijing's restrictions on key rare earth exports, which fell by 31% in September compared to the previous quarter, down to 4,000 tons. Such tit-for-tat trade measures dramatically increase the risk of a full-blown trade war.

Before the news broke on Wednesday, the U.S. government sent a series of contradictory signals that dashed hopes for a trade agreement between China and the U.S. President Trump sent mixed signals ahead of his upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, prompting investors to act cautiously. On Tuesday, Trump stated that he expected to reach a “good agreement” with Xi, but also acknowledged that the negotiations might not go forward. This uncertainty led the market into a panic sell-off.

Earlier this month, Trump threatened to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods, triggering a sell-off in cryptocurrencies that led to the evaporation of over $19 billion in leveraged positions. In the flash crash on October 10 caused by Trump's 100% tariff threat, XRP fell to an 11-month low of $0.77703, before briefly rebounding to $2.6467.

Due to the uncertainty of whether President Trump and Chairman Xi Jinping can reach a trade agreement at the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, XRP fell by 16.8% in October. Bitcoin (BTC) also slightly decreased by 6%, as institutional funds provided a sticky buffer against the decline. Today's news about XRP reflects that the token's sensitivity to macro risks is much higher than that of Bitcoin.

Government shutdown for 22 days, XRP ETF approval is far away

The U.S. government shutdown has been extended to the 22nd day as of October 22, becoming the second longest government shutdown in history. The Senate's 12th vote on a temporary funding bill resulted in 54 votes in favor and 46 votes against, failing to reach the 60 votes needed to restart the government. This political deadlock poses significant unfavourable information for XRP today's news.

The Senate deadlock means that the SEC can only rely on a lean staff to operate, leading to repeated delays in the review and approval process. Due to a shortage of personnel, the issuance of the XRP Spot ETF will face delays until the U.S. government reopens. The lack of anticipated institutional capital inflow for the XRP Spot ETF has dampened market sentiment.

Bloomberg Industry Research ETF analyst James Seyffart commented on the potential timeline for the approval of Spot ETFs by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: “It is anticipated that a batch approval of applications for XRP, SOL, and LTC will occur within 3-4 weeks after reopening. The SEC has about 90 applications backlog, but the streamlined S-1 process means a full re-review is not necessary. The year-end approval odds for XRP remain at 85%—don’t panic, this is a procedural delay, not a rejection.”

This assessment provides a glimmer of hope for XRP's news today, but the 85% probability means there is still a 15% risk of failure. Crucially, the longer the closure period, the more backlog of orders the SEC has, and the greater the delay in the launch of the Spot ETF. XRP Spot ETF issuers may receive SEC approval within 3-4 weeks after reopening, which increases the likelihood of a December launch, but it could also be delayed until early 2026.

Technical Analysis: The $2.2 Lifeline Determines Future Market

On October 22, XRP fell again by 2.4% after a 2.95% drop the previous day, closing at $2.3660. The token's performance lagged behind the overall cryptocurrency market, which dropped by 0.92%. This pullback caused the XRP trading price to fall well below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), further confirming the bearish tendency.

Key Technical Level:

Support Levels: $2.2, $2.0, and $1.9

Technical Resistance Levels: 200-day EMA is $2.6125, 50-day EMA is $2.7069.

Resistance Levels: 2.4 USD, 2.7 USD, and 3.0 USD

2.2 USD is the most critical support level for XRP in today's news. This price level represents a confluence of multiple technical factors and serves as a psychological barrier. A fall below 2.2 USD could trigger a chain of stop-losses, pushing XRP towards the psychological support of 2.0 USD. If 2.0 USD is also breached, the next target will be 1.9 USD, which is the rebound starting point after the flash crash in October.

On the contrary, if XRP can stabilize between 2.2 and 2.36 USD, it may attempt to break through the 2.4 USD resistance level. A successful breakthrough at 2.4 USD will set the next target at the 50-day EMA of 2.7069 USD. A breakthrough at this level will confirm a mid-term trend reversal, paving the way to challenge the 3.0 USD integer level.

Bearish and Bullish Scenario Analysis

The future development of XRP news today depends on multiple catalysts, including Sino-U.S. trade headline news, the U.S. government shutdown, the progress of the XRP Spot ETF, BlackRock's holdings in the iShares XRP Trust, blue-chip companies' interest in XRP as a financial reserve asset, as well as regulatory milestones such as Ripple's application for a U.S. chartered bank license and the market structure bill.

A bearish scenario could push XRP below $2.2. If BlackRock downplays the XRP Spot ETF plan, the U.S. deadlock continues to delay the ETF launch, the Senate obstructs cryptocurrency-friendly legislation, blue-chip companies do not adopt XRP, the OCC delays Ripple's banking license, or SWIFT restricts Ripple's market access in the global remittance space, these bearish events will form multiple Unfavourable Information. A drop below $2.2 could reach the psychological support of $2.0, and further deterioration may test $1.9.

A bullish scenario requires multiple positive catalysts. If the United States and China reach a trade agreement, the U.S. government reopens, BlackRock submits the S-1 filing for iShares XRP Trust and the SEC approves the XRP Spot ETF, blue-chip companies adopt XRP for financial management, Ripple obtains a U.S. charter bank license, the market structure bill makes progress in Congress, and the XRPL makes strides on Main Street challenging SWIFT, these bullish scenarios could drive XRP to break through the $2.4 mark, eventually reaching $2.7. If XRP continues to break through $2.7, it will pave the way for a $3.0 target.