Gate on-chain observation ( on October 29, ): Bitmine increased its holdings by 100 million ETH; Abraxas Capital's short order rose to 690 million.

In the past 24 hours, the crypto assets market has experienced intense Bull vs Bear Battle, with on-chain data indicating an escalation in institutional-level capital confrontation. Abraxas Capital significantly increased its short positions from $480 million to $690 million within just two days, a rise of 44%. Among these, ETH shorts rose from $226 million to $273 million, while BTC shorts increased from $124 million to $239 million. Meanwhile, the “100% win rate Whale” closed a long order of $250.7 million in BTC for a profit of $1.4 million, yet still holds $190 million in ETH long orders and $74 million in SOL long orders. This Bull vs Bear confrontation, exceeding $800 million in scale, suggests that market fluctuations will further amplify, and investors should closely monitor the defense and attack situation at key price levels.

1. BTC Market Dynamics and Analysis

The strength of short positions has significantly increased, and the institutional showdown has become intense

The Bitcoin market shows a clear short positions dominant pattern, with multiple institutional players significantly increasing their short positions exposure:

· Abraxas Capital aggressively shorting: The subsidiary address of this hedge fund (0xb83) has continuously deposited about 29 million USD into Hyperliquid over the past 3 days and has been intensively increasing short positions in BTC, ETH, and SOL since yesterday afternoon. As of the time of writing, the nominal value of the holdings of its subsidiary address has surged from 67.75 million USD to 253 million USD, while the main address (0x5b5) has also slightly increased its short position. Both addresses are fully allocated to short positions, with the current total account amount approximately 191 million USD, ranking first in contract holding accounts on Hyperliquid over the past 24 hours.

· “100% Win Rate Whale” Takes Profit: The whale has closed its 13x leveraged BTC long order position worth $250.7 million after a slight market downturn, realizing a profit of $1.4 million, maintaining a continuous winning record of 13 trades. Despite a drawdown of $12.68 million in unrealized profits over the past 24 hours, its strict position management showcases the style of a top trader.

· “Calm Order King” goes against the trend to add a short position: this well-known trader opened a short position on BNB at an average price of 1085 USD before today's market pullback, with a nominal value of the position reaching 1.6 million USD. At 2 AM today, this address added to its BTC short position at a price level of 115,100 USD, raising the average price to 112,000 USD; at the same time, the SOL short position was added at a price level of 200 USD, raising the average price to 191 USD. Its total nominal value of positions increased from 35 million USD to 79.7 million USD.

Long-term holders' movements attract attention

· Ancient Whale Large Transfer: The Bitcoin OG Whale Owen Gunden deposited 1,447.56 BTC, worth $163 million, to a CEX, while transferring 2,361.73 BTC (worth $266 million) to a new wallet address. Such movements from long-term holders often signal important market turning points.

· Initial share reduction by listed companies: Bitcoin Crypto Assets (DAT) company Sequans holds over 3,200 coins, suspected of transferring 970 BTC to Coinbase, which may be the company's first sale of Bitcoin since its establishment. Changes in institutional-level positions are worth closely following.

· Early investors take profits: A whale sold 6,000 ETH purchased at the bottom price of $1,582 six months ago, making a profit of $14.43 million. This whale had previously accumulated 8,240 ETH at a price of $1,195 at the end of 2022 and sold them for $2,961 in July 2024, making a profit of $14.49 million, demonstrating exceptional timing ability.

2. ETH Market Dynamics and Analysis

The battle between bulls and bears is intense, with a fierce struggle for key positions

The Ethereum market is showing a stalemate between bulls and bears, with multiple key data points indicating a significant divergence in the market:

· Huang Licheng's rolling position operation intensifies: Huang Licheng once again deposited $640,000 into Hyperliquid and continued to roll over and increase his long order position in ETH during the market correction, with a nominal position value reaching $16.99 million. From yesterday afternoon to today, his floating return rate has dropped from 130% to 27%, and the average holding price has increased from $3,890 to $3,950, with a liquidation price of $3,684. Meanwhile, the nominal value of HYPE's long order position has reached $5.3 million, with a current floating return rate exceeding 75%. His total position value has rolled over from $10.6 million to $22.31 million.

· Early participant's first transfer: An early Ethereum ICO participant has deposited 1,500 ETH into a CEX for the first time, worth approximately $6.02 million. The participant acquired 20,000 ETH that year at $6,220, which is now worth about $80.3 million, yielding an investment return of up to 12,914 times. Such initial movements from long-term holders often carry significant signaling implications.

· Institutional funds continue to flow in: The newly created address “0xDc8” belonging to the first holding institution of Ethereum, Bitmine, received 27,316 ETH from BitGo, valued at $108.92 million. Despite increased market fluctuations, institutional-level funds continue to accumulate Ethereum.

High leverage traders face challenges.

· “0x88b” Whale Sticks to Long Position: This whale opened a 40x BTC long order 10 days ago, which has an unrealized loss of 1.4 million USD, with an average entry price of 118,000 USD and a nominal value of the position of approximately 40.45 million USD, resulting in a floating loss of 140%. They continue to hold without any adjustments. This address prefers trend trading during the week, having opened about 75 orders since its establishment on July 11, with a total win rate of 95%. In the current month, 13 orders have been opened with a win rate of 100%.

· Subtle changes in the balance between long and short positions: Although the strength of short positions has significantly increased, the remaining value of 26.5 million USD in the “100% win rate whale” address has turned profitable, currently with an unrealized profit of 1.06 million USD, primarily contributed by ETH (2.43 million USD), indicating a subtle balance of power between long and short positions at the current position.

3. Other Altcoin Market Dynamics and Analysis

Public Chain Ecology: SOL Long and Short Position Differentiation

Solana has become a new battleground for the Bull vs Bear Battle, with obvious differentiation in Whale operations:

· “100% win rate Whale” holds a large position in SOL: This Whale currently holds 382,611.22 SOL long orders, worth 74.52 million USD, with an opening price of 198.37 USD. Although there is a current floating loss of 1.5 million USD, it still has limit buy orders for 119,075.37 SOL at an average price of 199 USD, worth 23.69 million USD, indicating strong confidence in the future of SOL.

· Abraxas Capital fully shorts: This hedge fund is increasing its short positions in BTC and ETH while also intensively adding to its short positions in SOL, forming a comprehensive short layout. Its sub-address's aggressive shorting behavior over the past 3 days reflects a bearish outlook on the overall market.

DeFi and Meme Sectors: Selective Capital Allocation

· LINK continues to be accumulated by institutions: a newly created wallet address 0x617 withdrew 30,620 LINK (approximately $550,000) from a CEX. Over the past 3 days, this Whale has accumulated a total of 168,760 LINK (approximately $3.08 million), with an average entry price of about $18.27. This ongoing accumulation indicates that institutional investors recognize the long-term value of LINK.

· PUMP acquires a large position: A whale withdrew 1.29 billion PUMP from Binance, worth 6.39 million USD. This whale has accumulated 3.3 billion PUMP in the past two weeks, worth 16.38 million USD, indicating a concentrated optimism towards specific small-cap assets.

4. Market Overview and Trend Analysis

Overview: Institutional-Level Bull vs Bear Battle Dominates the Market

The current market is in a typical institution-led phase, with main characteristics including:

· The strength of short positions has significantly increased: Abraxas Capital has increased its short position by $210 million in just two days, showing its firm bearish stance on the market outlook. The full short position allocation of this hedge fund has historically often served as a leading indicator.

· The long camp shows signs of differentiation: Although the “100% win rate Whale” still maintains most of its long positions, it has chosen to close its BTC long order to take profits, showing a cautious attitude towards short-term trends. Traders like Huang Licheng maintain their long exposure through rolling positions.

· Frequent movements of long-term holders: From large transfers by ancient whales to the first shipments by early ICO participants, changes in the behavior of long-term holders often signal significant turning points in the market. The current intense movements deserve close attention.

Trend Analysis: Key Support Level Under Test

Based on on-chain data and position distribution, the market trend for the next 1-3 trading days is inferred as follows:

· Key position of Bitcoin: BTC is facing a severe test at the support level of 113,000 USD. If it fails to hold, it may drop to the range of 108,000 to 110,000 USD. The resistance above is at 118,000 to 120,000 USD.

· Ethereum Bull vs Bear Battle: ETH needs to hold the key support at $3900, if it falls below, it may test the range of $3700 to $3800. Need to closely follow the liquidation risk of Huang Licheng's $16.99 million long order position.

· Risk of altcoin correction: If BTC and ETH continue to pull back, altcoins like SOL that have seen significant gains may face greater adjustments. It is important to pay close attention to the Close Position actions of the “100% win rate Whale” with a $74 million SOL long order.

· Risk Warning: Close attention is needed on the closing conditions of Abraxas Capital's $690 million short positions; any forced closing may trigger a short squeeze. At the same time, macro events such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting may amplify market fluctuations.

V. Conclusion

When Abraxas Capital increased short positions by $210 million within 48 hours, and when the “100% win rate whale” chose to close positions, realizing profits on $250 million BTC long orders, and when ancient whales began making large transfers of positions, the information conveyed by the market has become clear enough—institutional investors are preparing for potential significant fluctuations. A Bull vs Bear Battle of this scale far exceeds the cognitive range of ordinary investors, becoming a comprehensive contest of capital, information, and risk management.

Market turns often brew in silence and erupt in noise. While ordinary investors are still anxious about short-term price fluctuations, institutional players have already completed their position reshuffling; when retail investors struggle over a few points of profit and loss, whales are calmly adjusting their strategies for floating profits worth millions. From Abraxas Capital's aggressive shorting to the cautious profit-taking of the “100% win rate whale”, from ancient whale movements to early investors' first sell-offs, on-chain data acts as a lighthouse in the dark night, illuminating the true trajectory of smart money flow. In this market with severely asymmetrical information, those who can continuously profit are never the prophets predicting the future, but the wise who can understand the present and adjust in a timely manner.