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As market expectations for further rapid interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase, hedge funds and institutional asset managers have turned bearish on the New Zealand dollar, with leveraged funds switching to a net short position on the kiwi in the week ending November 26. Strategists at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia noted that the possibility of Trump imposing tariffs could also weigh on the New Zealand dollar, even if New Zealand's exports to the United States are not directly affected.

① The Australian and New Zealand dollars rose on Thursday, as markets bet on the end of U.S. rate hikes and even the prospect of rate cuts starting early next year. ② The Australian dollar hit a three-week high of 0.6805 against the U.S. dollar, rising 1.5% overnight, the biggest one-day gain since early January. NZD/USD once hit a new high of 0.6322 in nearly two months, and rose 1.6% overnight. The current target is the May high of 0.6384. ③ The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose slightly in June, the smallest year-on-year increase in more than two years, reflecting a further subsidence in inflation. The data led to bets that the Fed would only need to raise rates one more time, and could begin easing as soon as next March. ④ Alan Ruskin, a macro strategist at Deutsche Bank, said, "As central banks shift from raising rates to cutting rates, the Fed's leadership in the global interest rate cycle will become increasingly unfavorable to the dollar." He believes the Australian dollar will hit $0.7300 by the end of the year, NZD will hit $0.6700. ⑤The prospect of an end to tightening policy in the United States is considered to have reduced the pressure on domestic interest rate hikes, with futures currently implying only a 37% chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise interest rates by 4.1% next month. ⑥The Federal Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the official overnight call rate (OCR) unchanged at 5.5% on Wednesday, as expected, and said that interest rates will remain stable for some time, but most analysts still expect it to cut interest rates in 2024

The market consensus is that the RBNZ will keep interest rates unchanged at 5.5% this week. Kiwi Bank chief economist Jarrod Kerr said the Reserve Bank of New Zealand had raised the official cash rate from 0.25% in October 2021 to the current 5.5% and it was time to pause and watch. There is a significant lag in the effects of monetary policy, which can be as long as two years, and New Zealand is feeling the full impact of previous rate hikes. Households with mortgages are still shifting from low fixed-rate loans to much higher variable-rate loans, further tightening monetary conditions. Kerr added that the RBNZ had likely done enough to curb inflation.

New Zealand dollar volatility spiked ahead of the RBNZ decision, with traders building bullish positions while hedging against a weaker kiwi. Overnight implied volatility in the New Zealand dollar jumped to 18%, the highest among G10 currencies, with most forecasters expecting another rate hike from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The New Zealand dollar's one-year risk reversal gauge closed near its highest close since January 2022. Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar fell more than 0.6% against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday amid broad dollar strength. Wall Street forecasters are mixed on the outlook for the New Zealand dollar. Some expect the RBNZ to raise interest rates again and issue a hawkish policy statement to firmly establish the kiwi's high-yielding appeal at a time when other central banks are pausing tightening. While others were relatively negative, pointing to weaknesses in New Zealand's economic fundamentals