Recently, the Crypto Assets market has shown signs of recovery, with Bitcoin's price returning to the 110,000 dollar mark. Behind this market trend, multiple global macro factors are at play.

In terms of Sino-U.S. relations, there are signs of easing trade friction and geopolitical conflict. U.S. leaders have adjusted their previous hardline stance, publicly stating that they do not intend to undermine the Chinese economy and praising the decision-making wisdom of the Chinese leadership. Both sides plan to meet within two weeks to advance related agreements.

In terms of the U.S. financial system, the risk situation of regional banks is not as severe as previously expected. However, market attention has now shifted to whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in October. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, originally scheduled to be released this Friday, has been postponed to the evening of October 24 due to the government shutdown, which could affect the decision-making of next week's interest rate meeting.

The market generally expects a slight increase in the CPI for September, which aligns with the conventional logic that the cumulative effect of tariffs will drive up inflation. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October has risen to 98.9%, and the market is almost certain that a rate cut will be implemented.

From on-chain data, the turnover rate of Bitcoin has been continuously declining, which not only reflects a weakening of selling pressure but also indicates an increased willingness to buy, leading to a stabilization of investor sentiment. At the same time, the on-chain fair price indicator also confirms that the foundation of the bull market remains solid.

It is worth noting that since the rise of the BlackRock ETF concept, Bitcoin has been operating above the fair price of $97,000 for nearly two years, although it has approached it three times without breaking below that level. Currently, the fair price remains at $97,000, while the bear market alert line is at $55,000. The former may present a better buying opportunity, while below the latter, there may be opportunities to buy the dip in a deep bear market.

However, investors should also be wary of the upcoming XPL token unlock event on October 25, which may exacerbate market selling pressure in the short term.

Looking to the future, the key lies in accurately judging the direction of the bull and bear markets. At present, the logic of the bull market has not yet been broken. Against the backdrop of large-scale monetary easing by the Federal Reserve and the depreciation of the dollar, gold has seen a significant rise. As a potential safe-haven and anti-inflation asset, the upward momentum of Bitcoin remains strong.

Considering these factors comprehensively, maintaining a large position for long-term holding, while using a small portion of the position for swing trading based on market sentiment, may be a relatively balanced investment strategy.