The oral debate on the Trump tariff case is about to begin, with a current reported loss probability of 61%.

On November 5, Polymarket reports that the probability of Trump losing the tariff case at the Supreme Court is currently 61%. Bettors expect that the Supreme Court will likely dismiss Trump’s argument that “comprehensive global tariffs can be implemented without congressional approval.” Hours later, this verbal debate over the scope of presidential emergency economic powers is about to begin. (Oral arguments at the U.S. Supreme Court typically begin at 10 a.m. Eastern Time, which is 11 p.m. Beijing time today.) BlockBeats previously reported that the Supreme Court will hold oral arguments today on whether Trump can levy tariffs under the IEEPA. The core issue of the case is whether the president can impose broad tariffs on imported goods from countries around the world based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The implications of the case go far beyond trade policy itself; the Supreme Court's ruling will determine whether the president can use emergency powers to bypass Congress, thereby making such practices a tool of everyday governance and profoundly affecting the constitutional separation of powers and the boundaries of presidential authority.