Tom Lee's "bearish" analyst: A "risk liquidation event" may occur in the first half of the year, leading to increased volatility

On January 7, Fundstrat Digital Asset Strategy Head Sean Farrell stated in an interview that Bitcoin is still “scheduled” to reach $1 million in the long term, with strong structural tailwinds for quality crypto assets. The year 2026 will be a “trader’s market,” with potential “risk clearing events” in the first half, leading to increased volatility, and Bitcoin possibly retreating to $60,000 (deep value zone, “buy on dips” opportunity). Improved liquidity, policy stimulus, and AI-driven growth in the second half will present excellent opportunities. Regarding Ethereum, Sean Farrell believes ETH is viewed by traditional asset managers as “small-cap tech stocks.” Benefiting from the real-world asset (RWA) tokenization narrative (145% year-over-year growth in Q3 2025, bringing higher-quality assets into DeFi and enhancing value capture), its target price by the end of the year is approximately $4,500. For SOL, Sean Farrell thinks it will compete with ETH for RWA market share but lacks support from traditional asset managers. Its advantages include high throughput, upgrades (such as Alpenglow, Firedancer), and potential inflation reduction. Price expectations: falling back to $50-75 in Q1/Q2, then rebounding to $220-260. After risk clearing, altcoins will be an “excellent cocktail”; following ETH’s outperformance of BTC, altcoins with reliable tokenomics and solid traction, especially those related to RWA, will perform significantly. Previously, Tom Lee stated in an interview that “Bitcoin may hit a new all-time high before the end of January 2026,” while Fundstrat analyst Sean Farrell, in a report on the 20th, said “Bitcoin may fall to $60,000 to $65,000 in the first half of 2026, and Ethereum to $1,800 to $2,000.”