Hundent-billion order ignites the photovoltaic supply chain! Laplace wins the Tesla project, and the photovoltaic ETF (516230) surges nearly 2%!

April 1, the photovoltaic industry chain bottomed out and rebounded, with a sharp straight-line surge during trading! As of the time of writing, the China Merchants Photovoltaic ETF (516230) jumped by more than 1.9%, component stocks saw Laplace hit the 20cm daily limit, Mige Wei Co., Ltd. rose by more than 10%, JinkoSolar and Jwei Jiachuang rose by more than 7%, and several other stocks, including Austev, Trina Solar, Jingcheng Optoelectronics, and more, surged! Trading sentiment for the sector notably warmed up.

I. Core catalysts: Laplace wins Tesla’s $10 billion order

According to the news, Laplace, a provider of core photovoltaic cell manufacturing process equipment and solutions in China, recently won the second phase of Tesla’s photovoltaic project. The order size is nearly 10 billion RMB. Estimates suggest that this order accounts for 183% of Laplace’s total operating revenue in 2025, and will contribute more than 1.2 billion RMB in profit, which is 2.12 times the net profit in 2025.

Previously, there were reports that Tesla plans to purchase photovoltaic manufacturing equipment from China with a total price of $2.9 billion, sending a clear signal to the market that the global photovoltaic industry chain is accelerating its concentration in China.

II. Industrial logic: policy proactively “weans off” subsidies, and industry reshuffling speeds up

In addition, starting April 1, photovoltaic product export VAT rebate has been officially canceled. The “Announcement” issued at the beginning of the year by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration clearly states that, starting April 1, 2026, VAT export rebates for products such as photovoltaic will be canceled.

The essence of this policy is that it proactively cuts off the “subsidy-driven low-price competition” channel. Analysts point out that in the past, some low-quality and low-efficiency capacity survived by relying on VAT rebates; after the cancellation of the policy, companies must compete based on actual costs, technology, and channels. With gross margin hovering at the edge of 3%-5% for years, small and mid-sized enterprises face double pressure. Looking to the medium term, capacity clearing is expected to accelerate, which could help improve the supply-demand structure and further raise industry concentration.

Combined with March 30, the State Administration for Market Regulation clarified that it would carry out a comprehensive crackdown on “involution-style” malicious competition in industries such as the platform economy, photovoltaics, and new energy vehicles. The “anti-involution” policy and expectations for supply-side reform continue to strengthen, laying a policy foundation for the photovoltaic industry to shift from price competition to technology competition. The industry is expected to move toward high-quality development on an ongoing basis.

III. Dividend from external demand: global energy independence accelerates, and export data verifies business conditions

In the short term, although the cancellation of VAT rebates will shock the export costs of the photovoltaic industry, the demand increment brought by the acceleration of global energy independence is offsetting this impact.

In January-February 2026, China’s inverter cumulative export value reached 11.611 billion RMB, up 52.14% year over year. The Asian market performance was especially impressive, with exports growing strongly both month-on-month and year-on-year.

Guotai Junan Securities notes that the cost for wind, solar, storage, and other resources is currently at the historical lowest level, which will cause this “acceleration of global energy independence” triggered by the Middle East this time to no longer remain at the level of “slogans and narratives,” but to be converted into government policy incentives and enterprise orders faster. Over the past month, major European countries such as the UK, Germany, and Spain, to respond to potential energy crises and improve long-term energy independence, have already released specific policies or measures.

Accelerating the construction of wind power and supporting power grids and energy storage, incentivizing distributed solar-plus-storage installations on the user side, and strongly advancing transportation electrification will become common approaches for European and Asia-Africa-Latin America countries to enhance energy independence. China’s wind power, energy storage, power grid equipment, and photovoltaic products are expected to enter a new round of long-cycle global demand growth.

IV. Space-based photovoltaics opens up a whole new growth space

In terms of industrial growth space, the IPO timing window for SpaceX is becoming increasingly clear. Musk announced that the TeraFab project will further raise the ceiling for electricity generation and power-demand capacity. CITIC Securities points out that space-based photovoltaic demand is expected to experience index-level growth. China’s leading photovoltaic equipment manufacturers have extremely strong efficient iteration and fast response capabilities, and are expected to enter relevant equipment supply chains such as those of Tesla and SpaceX, capturing large orders. Space-based photovoltaic equipment may also have a noticeable inflation effect, and the value-added amount is expected to achieve a leapfrog increase, opening up a whole new growth space for the photovoltaic industry.

According to materials, the China Merchants Photovoltaic ETF (516230) closely tracks the CSI PV Industry Index. It comprehensively covers photovoltaic core industrial chain segments such as photovoltaic cells and modules (22.7%), inverters (13.9%), photovoltaic processing equipment (12.7%), transmission and transformation equipment (10.8%), silicon materials and wafers (9.91%), panels (8.29%), and more. The top ten holdings include advantaged leading companies such as TBEA, LONGi Green Energy, Robotech, Mige Wei Co., Ltd., Sungrow Power Supply, and TCL Technology and others.

With the fourfold drivers of Tesla’s $10 billion order catalyst, policy accelerating capacity clearing, the explosive outbreak of global energy-independent demand, and space-based photovoltaics opening up forward-looking imagination, investors may be able to take the path of the China Merchants Photovoltaic ETF (516230) to seize opportunities for a re-rating of industry valuations.

(Responsible editor: Dong Pingping)

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