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A review of the three #BTC blow-off tops over 25 years
Most people fall for the "This time is different" trap
Most people fall for the "This time is different" trap
BTC-1.92%
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What are high-cognition traders optimizing?
Low cognition:
Studying K-line patterns, volume-price secrets, on-chain signals, KOL hype every day,
Optimizing "noise resonance," crap carvings.
High cognition:
Optimizing daily
Expected value × trading frequency × compounding efficiency - overfitting penalty - slippage/fee funnel
The former is a fantasy story, satisfying the "money suppression,"
The latter is engineering, step by step.
View OriginalLow cognition:
Studying K-line patterns, volume-price secrets, on-chain signals, KOL hype every day,
Optimizing "noise resonance," crap carvings.
High cognition:
Optimizing daily
Expected value × trading frequency × compounding efficiency - overfitting penalty - slippage/fee funnel
The former is a fantasy story, satisfying the "money suppression,"
The latter is engineering, step by step.
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Only two types of people truly survive in the crypto world:
Long-term losers:
Chasing hot topics every day, believing in narratives, P small players, betting "this time is different," losing money for three years and still waiting for a rebound.
Long-term winners:
Building positive expectancy systems with AI, automating/manual hybrid execution, front-loaded risk control, quantitative filtering of signals,
letting time work in their favor.
Losers bet on stories, winners build machines.
Want to go from a loser to a winner? Start by setting up an AI trading system.
View OriginalLong-term losers:
Chasing hot topics every day, believing in narratives, P small players, betting "this time is different," losing money for three years and still waiting for a rebound.
Long-term winners:
Building positive expectancy systems with AI, automating/manual hybrid execution, front-loaded risk control, quantitative filtering of signals,
letting time work in their favor.
Losers bet on stories, winners build machines.
Want to go from a loser to a winner? Start by setting up an AI trading system.
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High and Low Cognition in Trading
💩Low Cognition Trading:
Main force drawing lines, market manipulators controlling the board, news-driven, emotional peaks,诱多诱空, chip peaks, institutional cost basis, pre-judging main force, perfect patterns, volume-price secrets
💰High Cognition Trading:
Expected value, dynamic compound interest, volatility surface, tail risk, overfitting
Understand half of the above two columns first, then talk about turning things around.
The sooner you discard fairy tales, the sooner you start printing money.
View Original💩Low Cognition Trading:
Main force drawing lines, market manipulators controlling the board, news-driven, emotional peaks,诱多诱空, chip peaks, institutional cost basis, pre-judging main force, perfect patterns, volume-price secrets
💰High Cognition Trading:
Expected value, dynamic compound interest, volatility surface, tail risk, overfitting
Understand half of the above two columns first, then talk about turning things around.
The sooner you discard fairy tales, the sooner you start printing money.
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Since the update of the quantification scaffolding Pytorch last month,
another major upgrade of the quantification algorithm package!
XGBoost has been upgraded to 3.2.0!
Compatibility with sklearn 1.8, ARM CUDA wheel, nccl optimization, tick-level large table training/backtesting is noticeably faster and more stable.
Categorical and extmem have also been significantly upgraded in 3.1.
"The million-dollar development cost of quantification strategies" has become a joke.
pip install --upgrade xgboost #BTC
another major upgrade of the quantification algorithm package!
XGBoost has been upgraded to 3.2.0!
Compatibility with sklearn 1.8, ARM CUDA wheel, nccl optimization, tick-level large table training/backtesting is noticeably faster and more stable.
Categorical and extmem have also been significantly upgraded in 3.1.
"The million-dollar development cost of quantification strategies" has become a joke.
pip install --upgrade xgboost #BTC
BTC-1.92%
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Haha, Monday opening welcomes the God of Wealth
Have you all received it?
#BTC
Have you all received it?
#BTC
BTC-1.92%
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EarnThousandsOfSilver
:
Received a few throwing knives!:From Lao Gao's rumors, it’s clear how low the IQ of this overseas Chinese Twitter crowd is.
First, how to identify a fake at a glance?
- Besides errors in official documents such as wording and amounts, statistical methods can also be used to infer whether it is a rumor.
- Secondly, YOUTUBE bloggers are a very niche group, and earning money is even rarer.
- Is it cost-effective to deploy a large number of people to sift through trivial details? It might be better to catch a few more remnants of Chen Zhi in the crypto circle.
View OriginalFirst, how to identify a fake at a glance?
- Besides errors in official documents such as wording and amounts, statistical methods can also be used to infer whether it is a rumor.
- Secondly, YOUTUBE bloggers are a very niche group, and earning money is even rarer.
- Is it cost-effective to deploy a large number of people to sift through trivial details? It might be better to catch a few more remnants of Chen Zhi in the crypto circle.
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Since successfully escaping the top and entering a long-term short position in October last year,
I have developed a much deeper understanding of this type of top-bottom pattern than the market;
Many people blame it on "who could have expected such a deep decline";
It's not that no one expected it, but this highly valuable information is not obligated to be shared. Moreover, if I openly tell you it's the top, there's a high chance you won't escape and will instead face insults.
For traders pursuing a healthy mindset, sharing this information is a negative asset.
View OriginalI have developed a much deeper understanding of this type of top-bottom pattern than the market;
Many people blame it on "who could have expected such a deep decline";
It's not that no one expected it, but this highly valuable information is not obligated to be shared. Moreover, if I openly tell you it's the top, there's a high chance you won't escape and will instead face insults.
For traders pursuing a healthy mindset, sharing this information is a negative asset.
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#BTC Spring Festival Market in the Past Three Years: Will the Year of the Horse See a Bullish Trend Again?
Overall, 2023 and 2024 continued the traditional "Spring Festival rally" effect,
but 2025 was an exception due to the macro bear market (a pullback after the peak).
Currently, the market is divided on whether the red envelope trend will reappear this year.
Overall, 2023 and 2024 continued the traditional "Spring Festival rally" effect,
but 2025 was an exception due to the macro bear market (a pullback after the peak).
Currently, the market is divided on whether the red envelope trend will reappear this year.
BTC-1.92%
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Looking back at this wave of trading, the response time is only a few minutes.
Almost at the same level as institutional traders in terms of reaction and decision-making speed.
First, I provide an overall data scenario estimate before the data is released, then wait for the data to come in and adjust accordingly;
This is an evidence-updating decision method—hypothesize first, then update.
Subsequently, with AI signals as corroboration, humans and machines jointly judge this as a bullish trade. The signal was issued at 21:34, and the order was placed at 21:35.
That's it. Class dismiss
View OriginalAlmost at the same level as institutional traders in terms of reaction and decision-making speed.
First, I provide an overall data scenario estimate before the data is released, then wait for the data to come in and adjust accordingly;
This is an evidence-updating decision method—hypothesize first, then update.
Subsequently, with AI signals as corroboration, humans and machines jointly judge this as a bullish trade. The signal was issued at 21:34, and the order was placed at 21:35.
That's it. Class dismiss
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What should be the focus of the market during this bear market?
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This prediction market's BTC 15-minute forecast theme is very good and suitable for developing deep learning quantitative strategies. Here are a few basic ideas:
- Clean and denoise signals
- Predict the next 15-minute closing price as up/down
- Opening inference to generate internal signals
- Place orders
- Trade all day for a perfect trading experience
View Original- Clean and denoise signals
- Predict the next 15-minute closing price as up/down
- Opening inference to generate internal signals
- Place orders
- Trade all day for a perfect trading experience
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Previously, we repeatedly advised the bulls to cut small losses early and avoid large losses later. The 2026 crypto bull market (Air Force version) is approaching. Our confidence is not based on previous successful bottom-fishing or top-escaping, but on professional investment research and analysis. Recently, we have been reiterating the expectation of a big bull market (Air Force version) because we hope everyone can have confidence and patience.
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This wave of profits is mostly made by traders who catch the right swing points and trends. - buy and hold/shanzhai spot traders/ dead - high leverage/ dead - macro narratives/fundamentals/ dead - subjective trading / dead - swing trend trading, but doing it the wrong way / dead trend trading is the ultimate weapon to capitalize on investors' behavioral biases. It exploits behavioral biases—cognitive biases—money, which has been a constant in human nature since ancient times.
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#ETH Super Volatility Large Range Theory ETH's previous cycle did not have a "true trend"; - Its rise was constrained by BTC sentiment spillover + the compounded ETF sentiment spillover; - Price performance did not show "strength," only weak strength; - Long-term bulls and bears battling caused the price to stall at "above consolidation, trend not yet complete." It's like a gentle drizzle that lasted an entire cycle. Next step, test Yilihua-chan's dark web line. (13XX)
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