QCP Group points out that Trump's ultimatum to Iran failed to materialize, and the market stabilized briefly. Despite BTC breaking below 70,000, its resilience has strengthened. With U.S. national debt exceeding 3.9 trillion, stagflation concerns intensify, and central banks face policy dilemmas. Iran proposed settling transit fees in yuan, and the market should monitor shifts in BTC.

The rise in US Treasury yields may influence the Trump administration's decision-making in conflict with Iran and indirectly impact Bitcoin's trajectory. Changes in key yields and swap spreads will determine market sentiment and policy adjustments, requiring investors to monitor macroeconomic risks.

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced significant volatility following Trump's threats against Iran's nuclear facilities, with market capitalization evaporating $6 billion before rebounding to $71,000. The event triggered market panic, forcing traders into liquidations and demonstrating cryptocurrency's heightened sensitivity to geopolitical risks. Bitcoin has declined 23% year-to-date, with markets closely monitoring the subsequent impact of Trump's statements.

On March 24th, the cryptocurrency market rebounded as Bitcoin's price rose from $68,000 to $71,000, influenced by Trump's suspension of plans for strikes against Iran. Crude oil prices fell, easing inflation concerns, and the market's total size rebounded to $2.39 trillion. Bitcoin is currently around $70,500 but facing short-term resistance. Japan's Liberal Democratic Party is promoting an AI financial framework, while the Balancer ecosystem is entering an adjustment phase. FET price showed a slight increase, indicating the recovery of short-term buying interest.

Former US SEC Enforcement Chief Margaret Ryan resigned on March 16 following disagreements with senior leadership over the handling of sensitive cases, with the controversy centered on matters involving individuals connected to Trump. Ryan had pushed for more stringent fraud charges but faced opposition, leading to internal tensions. This incident highlights intensifying policy divisions within the SEC regarding enforcement in the crypto space, with future regulatory direction remaining uncertain.

On March 24th, Trump's announcement regarding the de-escalation of the Iran situation triggered rapid global market reactions, with stock markets surging, crude oil plummeting, and Bitcoin rising, demonstrating a warming of market risk appetite. Various asset classes showed distinctly different reaction paths to the same event, with some funds capitalizing on early positioning, drawing market attention to information sensitivity.

Gate News: On March 24, the Polymarket event "Trump will visit China before April 30" rebounded to 23% probability, up 9% in 24 hours, with trading volume around 2.628 million USD. Additionally, the event "Trump will visit China before May 31" is currently at 56% probability, and "Trump will visit China before June 3" is currently at 71% probability. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian previously responded at a regular press conference regarding "when Trump's visit to China might be rescheduled," stating that both China and the US have maintained communication on issues including the timing of President Trump's visit to China.

After Trump announced a temporary easing of tensions with Iran, Bitcoin rose 4% in the short term, WTI crude oil prices fell 14%, and the S&P 500 index gained 3%. The futures market shows Bitcoin's annualized premium is below the normal range, options market prices the probability of Bitcoin reaching $80,000 at 20%, and the market lacks confidence in the $68,000 support level.

On March 24, Brent and WTI crude oil futures contracts experienced a surge in trading volume and triggered market selloffs following Trump's mention of "productive dialogue" with Iran. The White House denied that officials used insider information, and subsequently Iran's parliamentary speaker denied negotiations, causing global stock markets to retreat.

Polymarket shows the probability of crude oil reaching $90 by the end of March has risen to 82%, while the probability of reaching $100 has fallen to 36%. Trump mentioned that Iran may no longer develop nuclear weapons and the Strait of Hormuz could be subject to multi-party control, which could lead to oil price volatility. Market uncertainty regarding the Middle East situation has caused divergence in oil price expectations.