Geopolitics

The governor of the Central Bank of Taiwan, Yang Jinlong, warned in the Legislative Yuan that if oil prices rise to $100 per barrel, the annual CPI growth rate could reach 1.9%, and indicated that monetary policy may shift towards tightening. Global central banks face interest rate hike risks, putting pressure on the cryptocurrency market. The second quarter will be a key period to observe changes in central bank policies, particularly in light of developments in the Middle East situation and inflation expectations.

Due to escalating geopolitical conflicts and macroeconomic uncertainties, approximately $296 million net flowed out of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF last week, reflecting a decline in market risk appetite. Although the Bitcoin price rebounded to $67,500, market sentiment remains cautious, with investors anticipating a higher likelihood of Bitcoin dropping to $55,000.

The worsening situation in the Middle East has led to significant volatility in Bitcoin prices. On Monday, Bitcoin briefly fell to $65,112 but quickly rebounded to $67,400, indicating active buying at support levels. The market's sensitive response to the escalation of war and increasing macroeconomic pressures has resulted in a divergence in the performance of mainstream assets. The future trend of Bitcoin will be influenced by geopolitical conflicts and macro variables, and it may continue to maintain high volatility.

The U.S.-Iran conflict escalates again; Iran prepares for possible incursions. The U.S. is considering taking over Halk Island, and oil prices surge rapidly. Israeli airstrikes on Iran trigger a retaliatory response, with the Houthis making their first move. Market reaction is intense: Taiwan stocks plunge, inflation expectations change the path of monetary policy, and the global economy faces recession risk.

The New York Times reports that U.S. Army Rangers and Navy SEALs have been secretly deployed to the Middle East, possibly to participate in blocking the Strait of Hormuz, attacking Iranian oil facilities, and nuclear facilities. This operation reflects the growing military threat from Iran to the United States and may impact global oil and financial markets. As tensions rise, risk-averse sentiment increases, and Bitcoin is seen as "digital gold."

JPMorgan pointed out that in the Middle East conflict, Bitcoin has shown strong resilience against declines, with significant capital inflows and active trading, while gold and silver are facing capital outflows. Under high interest rates and strong dollar pressure, gold prices have dropped by about 15%. With its borderless characteristics, Bitcoin has become a safe-haven choice, and institutional investors are also adjusting their positions, indicating a decrease in gold liquidity while Bitcoin liquidity is increasing.

Johns Hopkins University professor Steve Hanke said in an interview that the United States is in a precarious position in the conflict with Iran, and that Iran is gaining the upper hand in a war of attrition. The U.S. government is burdened with debts totaling as much as $136 trillion, and Hanke warned of the risk of a financial collapse, arguing that a “decapitation” strategy has failed. With Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz, global markets have been impacted. He predicts that gold prices will reach between $6,000 and $7,000, and recommends carrying out fiscal reforms to address the debt problem.

Democratic Party Senator Elizabeth Warren wrote to the Department of Commerce, urging it to investigate the bitcoin mining company Bitmain’s mining rig transactions and their potential threats to national security, amid concerns that the U.S. government is conducting a security review of the company and worries about possible espionage activities. American Bitcoin, owned by the Trump family, purchased 16,000 mining rigs, and Warren questioned the conflict of interest that could influence decision-making.

《Rich Dad Poor Dad》 author Robert Kiyosaki warns about the inflation crisis, pointing out that national debt and expanded money supply will devalue fiat currency, and recommending investing in non-government assets such as Bitcoin, gold, silver, and oil. He emphasizes choosing assets with limited supply, and plans to accumulate Bitcoin before a market crash, while also stressing the importance of generating stable cash flow through productive businesses.

XRP fell 0.81% over the past 24 hours, trading at about $1.33, indicating insufficient bullish momentum. The 《CLARITY Act》 has again been stalled due to regulatory disputes over stablecoin yield rates, with the legislative process stalled for more than a year. XRP’s technical analysis shows downside pressure, with a key support level at $1.30 and a resistance level at $1.38. In the short term, market sentiment remains cautious due to regulatory uncertainty.

Former U.S. President Trump stated in an exclusive interview that the war goal against Iran is to seize oil and is considering deploying troops to occupy Hark Island. U.S. stocks plummeted due to the deteriorating situation in the Middle East, with Taiwan's stock market opening below 33,000 points, and TSMC also falling below 1,800 NT dollars. The rise in oil prices has sparked inflation concerns, affecting market confidence. The cryptocurrency market reacted mildly, with short-term trends unclear.

Speaker MB Ghalibaf of the Iranian Parliament warned investors of market manipulation tied to the US-Iran war, advising them to trade against misleading narratives. His comments sparked mixed reactions online, highlighting the broader impact of geopolitical tensions on markets.

Robert Kiyosaki points out that national debt and currency issuance will exacerbate inflation, while geopolitical conflicts may drive up oil prices. He emphasizes that personal financial awareness and asset allocation are crucial in the current economic environment, holding a positive view on gold, silver, oil, and cryptocurrency.

Coin Center Executive Director Van Valkenburgh warned that if the CLARITY Act fails to pass, the U.S. government may crack down on cryptocurrency in the absence of clear rules. He emphasized that the current administration's friendly stance has no legal binding, and the lack of legislative protection will increase the legal risks faced by the industry, criticizing operators for focusing only on short-term gains. The bill is stalled in the Senate, mainly due to conflicts of interest between the banking sector and crypto companies.

The conflict between the U.S. and Iran is escalating, with the U.S. intending to seize Iranian oil. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused oil prices to surge to $115, impacting the global economy. Taiwan's stock market plummeted by over 600 points, and inflation concerns are reshaping market monetary policy expectations, with experts warning of an increased risk of economic recession. The energy market is volatile, and the performance of safe-haven assets is mixed, with gold experiencing a sharp decline, while Bitcoin remains relatively stable, though it still lags behind other assets in the long term.

Oil prices broke above $100 on Monday due to a sharp rise in geopolitical risks, especially Trump's tough rhetoric towards Iran. Crypto analyst Willy Woo warned that Bitcoin's on-chain capital outflow may fall to between $46,000 and $54,000. If the global macro market structure breaks down, the crypto market faces a deeper bear market risk. Trump's negotiation moves and the strategic importance of Hark Island have heightened market uncertainty and affected global oil prices and asset liquidity.

The U.S. non-farm payroll report for March is about to be released, with the market expecting an increase of around 48,000 jobs. The ongoing conflict in Iran continues to impact oil prices and inflation, pushing the market's expectations from rate cuts to rate hikes. Analysts point out that strong non-farm data could further solidify the consensus on high interest rates, affecting the performance of risk assets.

The White House has privately informed allies that the diplomatic agreement between the U.S. and Iran will take time, and military actions are expected to continue for 2 to 4 weeks. Iran is skeptical about the agreement and believes that high energy prices give it an advantage, expressing doubts about the timeline for the end of fighting with the U.S. and Israel.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf questioned Trump's trading strategy TACO and suggested taking a reverse approach. The article analyzes the reasons for TACO's failure in the Iranian crisis, including the different nature of the opponents, the absence of the Supreme Leader, and the rising geopolitical risks, which have led to a decline in market confidence. Additionally, Ghalibaf also threatened that institutions purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds are "legitimate military targets," posing a new threat to the bond market.

Bitcoin prices remain weak, around $66,380 on March 30. The U.S. Kalshi prediction market is facing lawsuits, and Canada plans to ban cryptocurrency political donations entirely to reduce election risks. U.S. stocks have plummeted, with significant declines in tech stocks. Concerns over war and inflation have led to investor pessimism, and future attention must be paid to U.S. stock trends.