$5.8 Billion Options Expiring Could Cause Bitcoin and Ethereum Prices to Plummet?
Despite the SEC's approval of SpotBitcoin ETFs, the Crypto Assets market did not see the expected spike in January. The event was expected to drive a lot of buying, but failed to stem the GBTC outflows, continuing to put downward pressure on the market. However, the situation may soon intensify as nearly $5.8 billion worth of Bitcoin and EthereumOptions expires. This event can cause significant price Fluctuation, especially when the market is below the "biggest pain point".
At 08:00 on January 26, weekly options will expire with $5.82 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options expiring. This could play a crucial role in validating the upcoming trend in the market in February.
The breakdown of these options shows that $3.73 billion is related to BTC and $2.05 billion is related to ETH, which presents an interesting trend for the two major Crypto Assets. In the case of Bitcoin, the put/call Options ratio is 0.52, highlighting a significant concentration of interest in call Options.
Notably, Bitcoin's "biggest pain point" was identified at $41,000, while a large number of Close Position contracts exceeded $361 million at a higher strike price of $50,000.
The biggest pain point represents the price level at which Options holders are likely to face the greatest loss at expiry. In traditional financial markets, in theory, Options sellers (usually institutions with significant financial resources) try to control the Spot market at the biggest pain point as the expiration date approaches. The purpose of this is to maximize the Options Buyer's losses.
With Bitcoin currently trading below the biggest pain point, there are growing fears of increased selling pressure tomorrow. Investors who hold call options may face losses because their options become worthless if the price falls below the strike price. This can lead to increased selling pressure when investors try to minimize losses or close position. If the BTC price falls below the $40,000 mark, we could retest the support near $38,000.
$200 million in Ethereum is at risk ⬇️ of approaching $2,400
The EthereumOptions picture is different, with a relatively low bearish Options/bullish Options ratio of 0.31 and a "maximum pain point" set at $2,300. In addition, there are about $200 million in open Close Position contracts with a price of around $2,400. Call Options holders will face the most significant losses tomorrow.
With Ethereum currently trading well below its biggest pain point, this suggests that selling pressure is likely to increase in the coming hours. When a trader is prepared for losses, this situation can trigger a mass liquidation of the market.
However, this is often beneficial to the Options Seller (Seller) as they can keep the premium paid by the Options Buyer without having to deliver the underlying asset or pay cash.
(Source: Shayan Chowdhury)