Web3 Main Line: Stablecoins, AI, Memes, and Prediction Markets

Looking back at last year's predictions for the main line of Web3, it was found that the accuracy was about half. Currently, the main development directions and secondary trends in the industry can be summarized as follows:

1. Stablecoin and Tokenization of Real-World Assets (RWA)

The most noteworthy projects in this field currently include:

• CRCL: Essentially a bet on Circle's position in the stablecoin market. Although the current price still seems overvalued, considering the potential for 5-8 times growth in the stablecoin market over the next five years, along with the recent significant correction, it could be a good entry opportunity.

• Plasma: As a strong competitor in the stablecoin public chain sector, Plasma is leading in terms of financing scale, ecosystem development, and social influence. Its total value locked (TVL) after the mainnet launch is expected to reach 3-4 billion USD. Although the current valuation is high, considering the enormous growth potential of the stablecoin market in the future, it is worth paying attention to at the right time.

• ENA: Ethena, as a representative of decentralized stablecoins, has seen its USDE issuance surpass $13.5 billion. Considering its robust fundamentals and diversified business layout (including the centralized stablecoin USDTB and the RWA public chain Converge), it remains a project worth paying attention to despite its recent poor performance.

• Ondo: As the first platform to achieve round-the-clock trading of US stocks without KYC requirements, Ondo holds an important position in the RWA sector. If you believe in the trend of borderless US stocks on the blockchain, Ondo is one of the few investable options.

2. AI Agent

The main line of AI agents predicted last year has not been fully realized. However, this year, some AI agent projects with potential product-market fit (PMF) have indeed emerged, such as HeyAnonai, Giza, Almanak, and Rei Network in the Web3 field.

It is particularly noteworthy that Bittensor's upcoming halving event. As a leading Web3 AI project, Bittensor has several subnetworks that have started generating revenue, making it one of the most promising projects in this field.

3. Meme coin

The meme token craze continues to this day, even sparking market competition between various launchpads and pumps. However, Pump still maintains its leading position and has begun to venture into the live streaming field, developing towards a Web3 version of TikTok. In the meme track, although Alpha opportunities are changing daily, Beta opportunities still seem to be concentrated on Pump alone.

4. prediction market

Prediction markets are gradually becoming a potential new mainline. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are seeing continuous growth in data, and a large number of new projects are emerging in the primary market. There is a viewpoint that the development of prediction markets could have a disruptive impact on the traditional insurance industry, as it allows users to directly engage with and hedge transparent risk probabilities, rather than relying on the black box operations of insurance companies.

However, there is currently a lack of investable assets in the secondary market of this field, and investors may need to wait for the token issuance of projects like Polymarket.

From another perspective, the core theme of this bull market may be projects that “truly have revenue, have profits, and are repurchasing tokens.” From this angle, Hype and Pump may be the two tokens that deserve the most attention.

Finally, in the stablecoin/RWA space, in addition to the projects mentioned earlier, Tempo is also worth paying attention to. Although there was uncertainty about whether they would issue a token, the latest information indicates that Tempo may ultimately choose to issue a coin. The optimism around Tempo is mainly based on Stripe's strong B2B distribution channels, as well as Paradigm's advantage of being a well-known venture capital firm directly involved in the project's development.

In the future, the stablecoin public chain may form a dual king pattern with Plasma dominating the To C market and Tempo dominating the To B market.