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The probability of the end of the bull run is low, and the core driving force lies in the full launch of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle (with a 90% chance of a rate cut in October, and possibly another 1-2 cuts within the year), coupled with the SEC's review, which is difficult to shake the foundation of institutional holdings—companies have long been adept at using capital operations to avoid risks. The technical indicators confirm a weak rebound, with a typical "engulfing" pattern revealing signs of pressure, and the critical support levels for Bitcoin at $10,800 and Ethereum at $3,650 forming a defensive barrier. It is recommended to maintain patience and wait for a 1-3 month consolidation period, during which one can immerse in Buffett's "The Snowball" to gain wisdom.
The Fed's interest rate cut cycle deepens and solidifies the market bottom, while the marginal effect of regulatory disturbances converges, and the timing for strategic allocation is forming.