Crypto Assets Market Outlook and Trend Analysis

Recently, I had the opportunity to think deeply about market trends, and I would like to share some personal insights.

The overall trend of the Crypto Assets market is expected to become clear only after September. Considering factors such as macroeconomic resistance, summer liquidity constraints, and quarterly position adjustments, the real market dynamics may only emerge after the August holiday ends and market participants return. Recent market activities show that the rise of most small coins has mainly been driven by short squeezes. Traders, influenced by previous rebounds, are reacting instinctively and chasing momentum, but there is a lack of support from long-term holders. Most investors have already been frustrated by the previous market turbulence. As anticipated, the vast majority of tokens that surged sharply subsequently experienced an equally dramatic decline.

Ethereum has unexpectedly rebounded, led by the AI and small coin sectors that were previously hit the hardest. On the other hand, tokens with practical use, strong fundamentals, or buyback mechanisms have shown resilience, performing more stably during the downturn and recovering more quickly. Syrup, Hype, and AAVE are excellent examples. Although SPX belongs to the small coin category, its structure is entirely different. From these phenomena, we can draw the following insights:

1. The demand for Bitcoin is real and persistent

Traditional capital is gradually entering the market through regulated channels such as ETFs.

The nature of the capital supporting BTC is completely different from previous periods. Unless influenced by macro events, the likelihood of large-scale BTC liquidation is low.

2. The internal differentiation of small coins intensifies

In the long run, funds will flow back into the small coin market, but it will not be a comprehensive coverage. Only tokens with clear use cases and actual application scenarios are likely to attract these funds. That’s why I believe Ethereum will outperform Solana. Regulatory clarity, the continuously growing DeFi usage rate, deflationary structure, and staking demand together create a strong positive cycle. Moreover, due to ETH's failure to meet expectations for a long time, there are still potential buyers waiting on the sidelines.

3. Tokens supported by venture capital have structural risks.

Token unlocking will continue to exert pressure on price trends. In the case of insufficient liquidity, ongoing selling pressure from validators and early investors limits the upside potential. This is why I believe that the future prospects of tokens listed on centralized exchanges with overly high valuations are not optimistic. Tokens in the Cosmos ecosystem, in particular, face ongoing selling pressure stemming from their validator reward structure.

4. MeMe coin has structural advantages

MeMe coin has structural advantages, with no risk investment unlocking issues, fair distribution, and is entirely based on attention. This is a pure speculation mechanism that worked in the first cycle.

But I think this phase is coming to an end.

The token generation event of Pump.fun and the launch of Trump coin marked the peak of interest in MeMe coin. After that, the interest in MeMe coin began to wane. Even during the rebound in April, the performance of SOL was not as good as that of ETH. If everyone already holds SOL, who will become the marginal buyer when the momentum of MeMe coin fades?

Some MeMe coins may still perform well, especially those that have gained popularity through charismatic figures on platforms outside of crypto Twitter, such as TikTok or Instagram. These could still bring about asymmetric wealth effects. However, the era of “cute animal coins” as alpha has ended. Only those coins with strong narratives and strong market recognition possess real speculative value.

Ironically, the fatigue and skepticism towards venture-capital-backed tokens have opened the door for fair-launch Web2/3 projects, which will become the next wave of wealth generation opportunities.

Keeta is a great example. But to seize these opportunities, one needs to be active on the chain. When there is information asymmetry, big opportunities always arise. Once everyone is aware of something, it no longer yields returns.

This is why I focus more on the on-chain market. Keeta's success has sparked a rush to find the “next Keeta,” with capital starting to chase similar fair launch coin narratives. Just like a trader made a fortune by trading MeMe coin, attention guides capital flow.

5. Future Market Trends

If MeMe coin is no longer the opportunity, then what is the next hotspot?

My view: The combination of AI and Crypto Assets.

If you follow my updates, you will find that most of my operations in this cycle are focused on MeMe coin and AI.

Just like the DeFi summer, most early AI projects fail after the hype. However, truly practical projects are quietly being built during the bear market. We have already seen some of these projects emerging on the chain.

As the profits of MeMe coin dry up, attention will naturally turn to a new narrative. AI, with its clear practicality, is well-suited to become the next focus.

Many AI x Crypto projects are fairly launched, echoing the narrative of Keeta.

This is why I research and strategically position myself in this field during calm periods. There is no need to rush to establish a full position now, but I believe that if the market rises strongly again, this field will hold the greatest asymmetric opportunities.