The afternoon market shows that Bitcoin faced significant pressure after reaching the 115,500 level, failing to form an effective breakout and instead entering a narrow range fluctuation between 114,500 and 115,500. This pattern of being blocked at a high point and multiple unsuccessful attempts to break through indicates that long positions are losing momentum, and the market's buying power is insufficient. The current sideways consolidation is more likely a process of accumulation of short positions rather than a pump, and caution is needed as the market may ultimately choose to break down.

From a key level perspective, 115,500 has formed a solid short-term resistance top. If the price continues to fail to recover this level, it will strengthen the effectiveness of the resistance and increase selling pressure. The support level at 114,500 is facing repeated tests, and if it is broken down with increased volume under negative factors (such as a weakening in the US stock market in the evening), it will confirm the establishment of a short-term top structure, opening up greater downward space, with the first target pointing to the 113,800 - 114,000 area.

· Ideal short position: When the price rebounds near the upper range of 115,200-115,500, you can gradually place short positions, with the stop loss set above 115,800.
· Key breakdown short: If the price breaks down below 114,500 and stabilizes beneath it, it can be seen as a right-side short signal, targeting the aforementioned support.

Given the high correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks recently, the performance of US stocks in the evening will become an important barometer. Any weakness in external markets could ignite a short positions market. Until a clear direction is established, traders should remain cautious, but the strategic balance should tilt towards short positions. The core principle is: do not buy the dip too early, do not go long against the trend, and patiently wait for high-probability opportunities where rebounds are weak or there is a breakdown. Protect your principal and wait for the market to make a directional choice. #加密市场反弹