Trump's policy direction resurfaces: Global market competition escalates, new investment logic under multidimensional resonance.

1. Policy Dual Engine: The Butterfly Effect of Finance and Trade

Trump's policy style is known for its distinctiveness, and his latest speech once again becomes a barometer for global capital markets. This time, the focus is on two core variables—**fiscal policy** and **trade policy**, both of which act like twin engines driving the fluctuations in global asset prices from U.S. stocks to commodities.

At the fiscal policy level, the market is highly concerned about whether it will release a new round of tax cuts or infrastructure investment plans. If large-scale fiscal stimulus is implemented, cyclical sectors (such as construction and materials) may experience a short-term surge, but the accompanying inflationary pressure will push up U.S. Treasury yields, squeezing the valuation space for growth stocks. Conversely, if fiscal tightening is emphasized, risk assets may face short-term selling pressure, while safe-haven assets could benefit. It is worth noting that past policy cycles of Trump show that there often exists an "expectation gap" between his rhetoric and actual execution, and investors should be wary of the mismatch risks between policy commitments and their implementation effects.

In terms of trade policy, Trump's statements towards global partners directly influence capital flows. If tariffs are imposed on specific countries, the stock markets and exchange rates of the relevant economies may come under pressure, while domestic manufacturing in the United States may benefit in the short term. However, historical experience shows that the long-term costs of trade friction (such as supply chain restructuring and global growth slowdown) often outweigh the short-term gains. The current game between China and the United States in strategic resource areas such as rare earths has raised deep concerns in the market about the restructuring of industrial chains.

II. Market Chain Reaction: The Domino Effect of Asset Prices

Under Trump's policy direction, global asset prices have shown significant differentiation and linkage effects.

US stock market: Sector rotation accelerates

Policy uncertainty exacerbates the volatility of the US stock market, but structural opportunities are simultaneously emerging. If policies lean towards "fiscal expansion + trade protection," industries such as infrastructure and defense may become safe havens for funds, while technology stocks and export-oriented enterprises face pressure due to trade frictions and a stronger dollar. Data shows that during Trump's presidency, the valuation of the technology sector adjusted multiple times due to fluctuations in policy expectations, but in the long run, it is still supported by technological dividends such as AI. Currently, the NASDAQ's price-to-earnings ratio is approaching historical highs, and with the impact of policies, technology stocks may enter a period of consolidation.

US Dollar and Foreign Exchange: Exchange Rate Game Escalates

The movement of the US dollar is highly linked to policy expectations. If Trump sends strong stimulus signals, the dollar may strengthen due to optimistic economic expectations, suppressing non-USD currencies like the euro and yen; however, if trade policies raise concerns about global growth, the dollar's safe-haven attributes may attract capital back. Emerging market currencies face a dilemma: the appreciation of the dollar could trigger capital outflows, but trade easing might boost the exchange rates of export-oriented economies. Recently, central banks in countries like Malaysia and Vietnam have quietly adjusted their foreign exchange intervention strategies, reflecting the market's defensive positioning against the spillover effects of policies.

Commodities: Price Differentiation under Supply and Demand Game

Expectations of fiscal stimulus are driving demand for industrial metals (copper, aluminum), but a stronger dollar is offsetting the gains in commodities, creating a "scissors gap." Gold, as a safe-haven asset, depends on the dynamic balance between inflation expectations and the strength of the dollar. If Trump's policies trigger global inflation beyond expectations, gold may break through the key level of $2600/ounce; conversely, if trade frictions suppress growth, gold may return to a volatile pattern.

3. Global Interconnection: The Domino Effect of Policy Spillover

The influence of Trump's policies has long surpassed the United States, forming a global transmission chain of "policy-capital-assets."

Developed Markets: The Chain Reaction of Passive Adjustments

Europe, Japan, and other economies need to face the impact of U.S. policies directly. If the strength of the dollar continues, Europe's export competitiveness will be undermined, and Japanese companies will face pressure on their overseas profits, forcing the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan to passively adjust their monetary policies. In addition, fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields may trigger a resonance in the global bond market, especially testing the debt repayment capacity of emerging markets.

Emerging Markets: Differentiation Under Stress Testing

Southeast Asian and Latin American countries that are highly dependent on trade with the U.S. are facing dual pressures from exchange rates and capital outflows, and some central banks have started to intervene in foreign exchange reserves. However, economies like India and Indonesia, which have structural advantages, may seize the opportunity to attract industrial transfers and welcome new opportunities under the "de-dollarization" trend.

IV. Long-term Logic: Rebalancing of Policy Cycle and Fundamentals

Short-term policy shocks will eventually return to the economic fundamentals. If Trump's policies resonate with the pace of the U.S. economic recovery, the market may enter a "policy dividend + endogenous growth" dual-driven phase; however, if the policies deviate excessively from reality (such as disorderly tax increases suppressing corporate vitality), it may lead to market skepticism about the effectiveness of the policies, exacerbating asset volatility.

Investment Insights: Strategy Selection in Dynamic Games

1. Short-term strategy: Focus on policy-sensitive assets, such as infrastructure and defense sectors, while allocating safe-haven assets like gold and government bonds to hedge against risks.

2. Mid-term perspective: Focus on structural opportunities after the valuation correction of technology stocks, especially in technology-driven fields such as AI and semiconductors.

3. Long-term layout: Identify companies that benefit from "nearshore outsourcing" or "technological autonomy" in the restructuring of the global industrial chain to diversify geopolitical risks.

Trump's policy direction is both a challenge and an opportunity. In today's highly interconnected global market, investors need to track the pace of policy implementation and verify economic data from a dynamic perspective, capturing trending opportunities in the game. Only by deeply integrating policy variables with fundamental logic can one navigate steadily in a complex and ever-changing market. #Gate9月透明报告出炉 #加密市场回调 #十月降息预测