#OctoberRateCutForecast

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🇺🇸 This Week in the US Economy (October 20–24): Data, Risks, and Expectations

This week, the US economy faces a timeline filled with both important data releases and uncertainties created by the government shutdown.

📊 Weekly Data Calendar

Monday, October 20: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) – leading indicators that shed light on the future of the economy – will be released.

Thursday, October 23: Existing Home Sales – existing home sales data will be released.

Friday, October 24:

New Home Sales – new home sales (September data)

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – consumer confidence index (final data)

However, the most critical data, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), will be released on October 24, with a delay due to the government shutdown.

⚠️ Risk of Data Delays

The government shutdown in the US is disrupting the release of many economic data. This makes it particularly difficult for the Fed to make sound monetary policy decisions.

💸 Inflation and Fed Expectations

Core inflation is expected to run around 3.1% annually.
While a possible interest rate cut is on the agenda for the Fed's October 28-29 meeting, the lack of data makes the decision uncertain.

🏠 Housing and Consumer Confidence

Home sales will provide important signals about the housing market, which is weak due to high mortgage rates.

The University of Michigan consumer confidence index is a critical measure of household spending.

🌐 Outlook and Risks

The government shutdown is suppressing public spending and growth.

Inflation is still well above the 2% target.

The "data gap" is weakening the Fed's decision-making.

🎯 Why is it important?

This week's data releases could be decisive for the Fed's interest rate decisions and market direction.
Developments in inflation, consumer confidence, and the housing market will offer strong clues about the "new balance" of the US economy.

The picture for markets is clear: data gap + uncertainty = high volatility risk.
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