#CPI数据来袭 Tonight's CPI must be significantly higher than expected to change the Fed's interest rate cut expectations:

The US CPI for September, announced tonight, is expected to rise 0.4% month-over-month for the overall CPI and 0.3% month-over-month for the core CPI. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics stated last week that despite the government shutdown (now in its fourth week), it will still release the inflation report to assist the Social Security Administration in determining the annual cost-of-living adjustment for millions of retirees and other benefit recipients for 2026.
The CPI expectation this time is an increase, but it should be interpreted as a one-time increase due to tariffs, which will not have a significant impact on the Fed's interest rate cut in October. However, friends should be prepared for the possibility of increased volatility.
Although analysts expect that this data will not hinder the Fed's process of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points next week, it may provide clues to the actions the Fed might take at the December meeting.
Traders have almost fully digested the expectations of a rate cut next week and another rate cut at the December meeting. Today, market sentiment has begun to stabilize, and the key events for next week are also clear, starting with the Fed meeting and Powell's speech early in the morning on the 30th, followed by the China-U.S. talks, the timing of which is still unknown on the 30th. The core PCE data on the 31st seems less important now, and next week, both parties are likely to discuss the issue of resuming the government shutdown.

Looking back at the data for BTC, the turnover rate has started to decline significantly, indicating that some investors' panic feelings are dissipating. As the price of BTC rebounds, the sentiment of loss-making investors is gradually improving, and those who have recently exited the market are mainly short-term investors who bought in during the past few days.