This year, Alphabet's stock has experienced some Fluctuation. Investors are torn between considering the construction costs of artificial intelligence (AI) and strong fundamentals. Alphabet includes Google, YouTube, and Google Cloud, which have made significant investments in data centers and custom chips. At the same time, financial performance has been quite impressive. This combination—active investment coupled with stable performance—has laid a solid foundation for the stock's price prediction based on fundamentals by 2030.

Let's take a look at a simple model: if revenue can grow by about 12% each year for the next five years, and the operating profit margin remains unchanged, then earnings per share will grow in sync with revenue. Assuming the price-to-earnings ratio remains at 25 times, a reasonable target for 2030 can be predicted.

The recent business momentum is impressive. In the second quarter of 2025, Alphabet's revenue grew by 14%, reaching $96.4 billion, with an operating profit margin of 32.4%. Among them, Google Cloud performed particularly well, with revenue increasing by 32%, reaching $13.6 billion, and operating income rising from $1.2 billion in the same period last year to $2.8 billion. This fully demonstrates the returns in the profit statement from the demand for AI-related infrastructure and cloud computing.

Capital investment is also a major pillar of the story. In the second quarter of 2025, Alphabet's procurement of property and equipment reached $22.4 billion, and it raised its full-year capital expenditure plan to approximately $85 billion. Although the investment is substantial, it is also an important factor in securing double-digit annualized revenue growth over the next five years.

The company has not forgotten to give back to its shareholders. In this quarter, Alphabet repurchased $13.6 billion worth of shares and continued to pay a quarterly dividend of $0.21. Earlier this year, it was also increased by 5%.

Sundar Pichai, the CEO of Alphabet, summarized in the company's Q2 2025 financial report: "AI is actively impacting every part of the business, driving strong momentum."

Looking ahead to 2030, using the latest data for model forecasting. Calculating from the most recent four quarters, the diluted earnings per share are as follows: $2.12 for Q3 2024, $2.15 for Q4 2024, $2.81 for Q1 2025, and $2.31 for Q2 2025, totaling approximately $9.39. If revenue grows at 12% annually over the next five years, and the operating profit margin remains stable, then earnings per share will also grow at a similar rate, potentially reaching $16.5 by then. Applying a 25 times price-to-earnings ratio means that the stock price will approach $415 by 2030. Compared to current levels, this indicates an achievable mid to low double-digit annualized return over the next five years by maintaining the existing dividend.

Of course, there are some considerations. For example, recent investment returns have increased earnings per share by approximately $0.85, and this project may experience fluctuations. Additionally, as the current capital expenditures are capitalized, depreciation will also rise, which may impact profit margins. However, stock buybacks and the continuously expanding cloud profit margins may provide a good response to these adverse factors. Furthermore, customer acquisition costs, regulatory issues, and intensified competition in the AI sector are all potential risks that investors need to pay attention to.

Overall, I believe this forecast is relatively conservative: maintaining stable double-digit revenue growth, a low to mid-range operating profit margin, and a price-to-earnings ratio of around 25 points to a stock price close to $415 by 2030. To achieve this, Alphabet needs to balance high investments with discipline while executing its AI roadmap, but the latest data indicates that the company is making steady progress on this path.