As of 14:00 on November 2, 2025, the price of Ethereum $ETH (ETH) is $3,895.70, up 1.09% from the previous day. The highest within 24 hours reached $3,913.58, and the lowest dipped to $3,856.71. The trading volume is $17.33 billion, with a market capitalization of $470.18 billion. Today's trend shows technical breakdowns, capital divergence, and intense volatility in the derivatives market. The detailed analysis is as follows:

1. Technical Analysis: Short-term trend reversal, bears dominate the market

- Key support levels broken
ETH failed to reach the $4,788 high, consecutively closing with long bearish lines, breaking below the MA5, MA20, and MA60 moving averages, forming a "headless axe" pattern. This is a strong bearish signal indicating a reversal of the short-term upward trend. The current price around $3,856 (24-hour low) seeks support. If it further breaks below this level, it may test the monthly support at $3,680.

- Indicator resonance indicates bearishness

◦ MACD: After forming a death cross at high levels, the fast line (DIF) crosses below zero into a bearish zone, with green momentum bars expanding, showing increasing downward momentum.

◦ Volume-price relation: During declines, trading volume significantly increases (24-hour volume reaching $17.33 billion), while during rebounds, it contracts, consistent with the "falling price with rising volume and weak rebound" characteristic of a bear market.

◦ RSI: The 14-day Relative Strength Index has fallen from overbought territory to 45, in a neutral to slightly bearish zone, indicating market sentiment shifting from overheating to caution.

2. Capital Market: Whale selling and retail buying signal potential top

- Large-scale whale withdrawals
On-chain data shows that in the past 24 hours, whale addresses net outflowed 2.3 million ETH, accounting for 97% of the total net outflow of 2.37 million ETH. Meanwhile, small and retail investors bought against the trend, forming a typical top pattern of "whale selling, retail buying." Historical data suggests such divergence often signals market top or deep correction.

- Derivatives market sees mass liquidation
A pullback from high levels triggered leverage liquidations, with total liquidation amount reaching $88.09 million in the past 24 hours, with 65% (about $57.47 million) in long positions, mainly concentrated in the $3,900–$4,000 range. The forced liquidation of many longs has spread panic, with the Fear and Greed Index dropping from high levels to 60, indicating a cooling of market sentiment.

- Institutional funds hedge short-term risks
Yesterday, Ethereum spot ETF experienced the second-highest single-day net outflow in history, with $197 million leaving, and BlackRock's ETHA ETF saw an outflow of $87.16 million, reflecting institutional investors' risk aversion in the short term. Additionally, about 880,000 ETH are expected to exit staking this week through the end of the month, potentially causing weekly sell-offs of $2 billion, further fueling market concerns.

3. Fundamentals: Long-term positives and short-term risks coexist

- Technical upgrades support long-term value
The Fusaka upgrade scheduled for December 3 will introduce PeerDAS technology, reducing node bandwidth requirements through data sampling and gradually increasing Blob capacity to 21, expected to lower Layer 2 transaction costs by 80% and surpass 100,000 TPS. While this upgrade may bolster Ethereum's long-term scalability and ecosystem competitiveness, its short-term impact on price is limited.

- Marginal improvement in regulatory environment
The U.S. SEC simplified the approval process for crypto spot ETFs in September, allowing qualified products to be listed via standardized procedures, likely accelerating institutional capital inflows. Currently, 35 Ethereum ETFs are queued for approval; if approved soon, it could bring short-term liquidity injections.

- Competition and ecosystem challenges
Chains like Solana continue to approach Ethereum in NFT trading volume and user activity, with staking yields (around 8% annually) significantly higher than ETH (4.8%), potentially diverting funds and developers. Moreover, on-chain activity on Ethereum Layer 1 (active addresses, transaction volume) has stagnated, with TVL share dropping from 70% last year to 58%, indicating challenges to its ecosystem dominance.

4. Market sentiment and derivatives: Increasing divergence between bulls and bears

- Rising options market hedging demand
Ethereum options expiring in November have open interest of $39 billion, with a significant increase in put options at strike prices between $3,800 and $4,000, reflecting defensive positioning against short-term declines. The correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and Ethereum has risen to 0.85. If Bitcoin breaks below the critical support of $116,000, ETH may follow downward.

- Capital flows and position changes

◦ Spot market: Net outflows of 2.37 million ETH from exchanges, the highest in nearly three months, indicating investors are transferring tokens to cold wallets or staking pools for long-term holding.

◦ Futures market: Perpetual contract funding rates have dropped from 0.02% to -0.01%, showing long positions are actively reducing, shifting market sentiment from "long squeeze" to "short squeeze."

5. Short-term outlook: Risks and opportunities under two scenarios

- Pessimistic scenario (probability 60%)
If ETH breaks below support at $3,856, it may trigger automated stop-loss orders, pushing prices down to test $3,680 (October low). Key points to monitor:

◦ Whether whales continue to sell (current whale holdings are at their lowest since 2023);

◦ Derivatives liquidation zone (short positions worth $1.2 billion in the $3,600–$3,700 range).

- Optimistic scenario (probability 40%)
If prices stabilize and rebound near $3,856, conditions include:

◦ Bitcoin holding above $116,000 and rebounding;

◦ Whales halting or reversing selling activity (no signs currently);

◦ Funding rates in derivatives market returning to neutral levels (above 0.005%).

6. Trading strategies

- Short-term traders

◦ Shorts: Consider entering short positions lightly between $3,900–$3,950 with a stop-loss above $4,000, targeting $3,800.

◦ Longs: Wait for the price to stabilize above the MA20 (currently $3,950) and form bullish engulfing patterns before entering, with stops below $3,850.

- Long-term investors

◦ Dollar-cost averaging: Gradually increase positions in the $3,600–$3,800 range, taking advantage of dips to lower average costs.

◦ Staking yields: Deposit ETH into platforms like Lido or Rocket Pool to earn a stable annual yield of 4.8%, while locking liquidity to reduce selling pressure.

- Risk warning

◦ Keep a close eye on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in November (November 5). An increased rate hike expectation could intensify market volatility.