I'll say it again...

We are NOT going into a prolonged bear market.

I am seeing a crazy amount of people flipping their entire bias today because the 50SMA closed below...

And thinking Bitcoin is just going to follow the exact same path into a bear market, drop 75% over the same time period, and let them scoop up the lows happy as larry.

It's absolutely wild stuff.

Almost everyone has been totally and utterly manipulated by the big wigs who KNOW that they're all looking at the 4 year cycle, and they're using it against them.

It is the most commonly accepted thing amongst crypto investors.

Guys... you cannot just look back at what has happened before, and use that as your absolute guide to what WILL happen next.

Everyone is comparing this to 2021 thinking they have it all figured out... do you really think it is that easy?

That you can just look at what happened last cycle, and use that as your absolute guide?

Fuck no you can't.

Here are the facts.

We are in a TOTALLY different macro situation to 2021....It literally could not be more different.

And Bitcoin + the wider Crypto market, are utter vehicles of liquidity.

And if you are going to try and analyse where we are and what is happening, you have to take this into account before anything else.

November 2021:
- TOTAL surged 400%
- Inflation hit 9%
- Post $3tn stimulus(biggest ever)
- Bank reserves $4.2tn(massive excess)
- TGA $50bn(pretty much empty)
- QT approaching
- PMI level 61(expansion)

Today:
- TOTAL pushed 40%(all BTC gains)
- Inflation 2.9%
- Post 2.5 years of tightening
- Bank reserves $2.8tn(almost at limit)
- TGA $1tn(highest amount in 4 years)
- QT ending
- PMI level 48(contraction)

Literally the polar opposite.

2021 was post massive stimulus and growth... contraction was coming next.

2025 is post massive contraction and drainage.... expansion is coming next.

If you think you have the game sussed out because you can pull up one trend line and a MACD, you are going to be very sadly mistaken.

Right now, we are much closer to 2019 than 2021.

If you cannot see the insanely stark differences in the macroeconomic outlook you are a fool.