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PLTR Valuation Debate: Cheap or Ridiculously Expensive?
Palantir(PLTR) 2024年涨141%，连续两年S&P500最强表现。Jim Cramer甚至喊出"ridiculously cheap"，但这个判断值得怀疑。
数字说话
当前P/E倍数621，远期287——这是什么概念？同行SaaS公司根本没这个估值水平。按Price-to-Sales对标，PLTR的倍数不仅最高，而且还在持续扩张。用传统估值逻辑，这股票妥妥overvalued。
那Cramer为啥还看好？他翻出了"Rule of 40"这个SaaS专用指标——把收入增速+利润率相加。PLTR的Rule of 40得分94%，碾压整个软件赛道。看起来增长+盈利能力无敌。
但问题来了
这个指标有坑：
关键是：大型机构(对冲基金、财富管理)通常不会只看Rule of 40。他们更看重P/E、P/S这类传统指标。一旦发现股票overvalued，LP压力下他们会减仓落袋，而不是在高估值继续加仓。
结论：PLTR增长确实猛，AI浪潮也是尾风，但估值已经定价进去太多预期。Cramer这个判断可能是少数派观点。