The whole internet is fixated on the Fed, but let me pour some cold water first:

This round of bullish news? It already played out a long time ago.

BTC pumped from $80,000 to $94,000, which in essence was just the market front-running the “rate cut expectations.” The real killer isn’t yesterday’s decision—it’s next week’s rate hike move from Japan.

🔥 Yen rate hike—why is it even more aggressive than the Fed?

Look back at the mess in 1998: when Japan ended its ultra-low interest rates, it directly triggered the Asian financial crisis. The logic is dead simple—

Global capital borrows yen to buy US Treasuries and pocket the yield spread (carry trade). Once the yen strengthens → they must sell US Treasuries to pay back the loans → US Treasury yields spike → risk assets across the board get wrecked.

This playbook is still running today.

🔍 What’s even crazier is the recent derivatives market

Open interest has stayed high, but the direction is unclear, like everyone’s holding back for a precision liquidation the moment a rate cut happens.

The real landmine isn’t today, but at these two points:

• US CPI data release
• If CPI blows past expectations, that’s a double whammy of bearish news, and the market takes a direct hit.

📌 What to do?

Don’t FOMO into highs in the short term; keep a close eye on Powell’s words—

• If he sounds dovish → there might be a rebound window
• If he’s hawkish + Japan really does hike rates → high-risk assets (including altcoins) won’t hold up, time to bail.

ETH, SOL, XRP and other assets all depend on the broader environment in the short term. Don’t just focus on the rate cut narrative—the yen side is moving even faster.