Tonight, global investors' eyes are locked on a point in time - at 3 a.m. Beijing time, the Federal Reserve is about to announce its latest interest rate decision. The market generally expects a 25 basis point rate cut is already a certainty, but the real suspense is, what kind of rate cut will this be?

The debate within the Fed has actually heated up. Those who support interest rate cuts emphasize that employment data continues to be weak and believe that early action must be taken to avoid a hard landing for the economy; The hawkish camp warns that inflation has not yet fully fallen back to the target range, and premature easing may be in vain. In the end, we are likely to see a contradictory combination: ostensibly cutting interest rates, but actually releasing a "pause signal".

There are several key variables worth keeping an eye on for this meeting:

How far will Powell's wording game go? Every word used at a press conference can be the focus of market interpretation. There is a high probability that there will be obvious differences in the dot plot, and there may be more than one member voting against, and this internal tearing will directly affect market confidence. The current macro environment is indeed tricky - inflation data is still hovering at a high level, the job market is starting to cool, and the Fed is standing at a policy crossroads. Also, don't forget that although balance sheet reduction has just been suspended, discussions about resuming asset purchases may be on the agenda again.

To put it bluntly, this time is not a simple monetary easing, but more like a preventive shot for the market in advance. For the crypto market and risk assets, short-term volatility is inevitable. Do you think it will rise or fall first at the opening tomorrow?