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Tonight early morning, the Federal Reserve will deliver its final task of the year.
Cut 25 basis points? This is virtually a certainty—the market's probability is 89.4%. Now, whether institutions or retail investors, everyone is watching the same thing.
The interest rate cut itself is no longer the main focus; what truly matters is how the "dot plot" will look after the cut.
If they only cut 25 basis points and then provide a forward guidance saying "don't expect next year," the market is very likely to turn downward immediately.