The atmosphere is already tense enough to burst.

Tonight at 3 a.m., the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is the only focus in the entire market. Apart from that, there's really no other hope in the market. Funds are all held tightly, like a bundle of fuses waiting to be lit.

Rate cuts? That's no longer a suspense. But the question is—will there be another classic "initial rally followed by a sharp drop" scenario? The short-term surge this afternoon clearly shows some are betting in advance, but how high these tentative moves can go is anyone's guess. Bears are still lurking.

The biggest fear is “expectations turning into poison once fulfilled.”

Powell's press conference is most likely to stick to the usual rhetoric—emphasizing "data-driven decisions," remaining cautious about the employment market, but how will January unfold? He won't give a clear answer. The market has already interpreted this as “hawkish easing”: easing will happen, but don’t expect the pace to be rapid.

The crypto market is now at this delicate balancing point, and it could tilt at any moment.