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As regulatory standards become more standardized, the game rules in the secondary market are being rewritten. I myself am involved in secondary trading, but I have to admit: retail investors here are more like harvested chives.
Many believe that only the primary market has market makers controlling the game and will monitor the top ten addresses' coin holdings. But what about the secondary? Strong market maker coins are everywhere, and the techniques of "mouse farming" are more covert. The market trend last October is clear evidence—the retail investors and small institutions had no power to resist against the main players. You think you're engaging in a game of strategy, but in reality, it's just a one-sided, lower-dimensional attack. Information gaps, capital volume, trading rights—these things are simply not in the same dimension.
Let's talk about taxes. The US is leading the push for crypto taxation, followed by Europe, while Asian funds are panicking first because of "free selling." This round of correction, frankly, is Asian retail investors stepping on each other and actively surrendering their chips. Once Bitcoin completes the redistribution of chips and Wall Street takes over, what will the market look like? My judgment is: Bitcoin will trend independently, institutions will rejoice, but this is not a Web3 bull market, nor is it a spring for retail investors.
Everyone has seen this rally—Bitcoin is leading the pack, the altcoin season? It hasn't arrived at all. The reason is simple: professional players have entered the market. But retail investors are also evolving. Ethereum, trapped at 3500, dared to add positions at 3000 and recovered at 3300, indicating that the trading system is gradually being established. Are market makers trying to harvest? The difficulty is no longer what it used to be.
My current strategy is: only focus on deterministic structures in the secondary market, starting at least from the 4-hour timeframe. Small-scale market movements are like projects rushing into no-hotspot primary markets; after tossing around for a while with no results, they only slowly chip away at your bullets. Certainty is the key to survival.